Study: Adopting Social Isolation May Have Saved 118,000 Lives in Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A study conducted by economic statistics area professors at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ) shows that up to 118,000 lives may have been saved in Brazil as a result of social isolation measures in May to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. The study’s findings were published yesterday by the ‘O Globo’ newspaper.

According to Professor Caio Chain, the equation studied the transmission of the coronavirus and took into account social isolation data from GPS cell phone tracking and how they interfered with the spread of the disease throughout Brazil.

“Thus, we managed to understand what the pandemic would have been like without social isolation, obtaining a projected number of cases and applying the lethality rate of the epidemiological model of Covid-19 Brazil, we reached certain deaths estimates that were prevented,” he explained.

The estimate shows that for every one percent increase in social isolation there was a reduction in the growth rate of the virus of up to 37 percent.

Taking this into account, May showed a 44 percent isolation rate with 29,367 recorded Covid-19 deaths. Within the equation, a 25 percent isolation rate, as it stood in February and reflects the normal average in Brazil, would result in 147,447 deaths, which would produce an approximate difference of 118,000 to the official figure for the month.

The study also says that, compared to similar surveys conducted in other countries, isolation in Brazil was poorly effective.

“The number of deaths in Brazil in a month, in the probable scenario, would be five times higher absent the restrictive measures, which points to an ineffective isolation.” The estimates, published in Nature scientific magazine, found that the number of deaths in Europe (11 countries analyzed) would be 3.2 million people instead of 129,000, 25 times more, if it were not for the set of isolation measures (“non-pharmacological”) adopted by the authorities between March and April, the start of the coronavirus pandemic,” reads the text.

Since the pandemic emerged, Brazil officially counts 84,207 fatalities as a result of Covid-19. The total number of infections nationwide is 2,289,951.

Source: UOL