Witzel’s Troubles, Bolsonaro’s Popularity, Spur Mayor Crivella’s Re-election Campaign

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – For one, God above all. For the other, Rio above all. In the electoral race for the city of Rio de Janeiro, Marcelo Crivella and Eduardo Paes have adopted different strategies to reach the second round.

Glued to President Jair Bolsonaro, Mayor Crivella is trying to become the conservative camp’s main candidate.

The erosion of Governor Wilson Witzel’s image, with corruption allegations against his government and an impeachment now in process, was met with relief by Crivella’s allies.

They believe that the governor does not have the political strength to promote a candidate. In the past, there was concern that a candidacy sponsored by Witzel might split the conservative camp, drawing votes from Crivella.

Now the mayor is focused on winning votes from supporters of the President, whose national approval rate has climbed to 37 percent, according to Datafolha.

The ideal vice-mayor candidate for Crivella party, according to allies, would be a woman appointed by Bolsonarists. Federal Deputy Major Fabiana is one of the names under consideration. The nomination, which should undergo the Bolsonaro family’s assessment, is not yet sealed.

After a split within the PSL (Social Liberal Party) and the failed attempt to create the Aliança pelo Brasil (Alliance for Brazil) in time for the municipal elections, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and City Councilman Carlos Bolsonaro joined Crivella’s party Republicanos (Republicans) in March.

The party also provided its structure to other Bolsonaro’s supporters, such as Rogéria Bolsonaro, one of the President’s ex-wives, who will attempt a return to Rio’s City Council.

A licensed bishop of the Universal Church, Crivella wants to show voters that his union with the President’s group was not merely for convenience, but was based on a common ideology of conservative values.

The campaign will also suggest that closeness and alignment with Bolsonaro are critical to helping Rio in a time of economic crisis.

While Crivella has already chosen sides, former Mayor Eduardo Paes (DEM) is trying to remain in the centre so as not to lose votes from either the right or left-wings. He does not usually praise or criticize Bolsonaro and should avoid nationalizing the debate.

The ex-mayor wants to win the votes of Bolsonarists who disapprove of Crivella. However, he is unable to stand on the right because he runs the risk of losing the preference of the left in the second round: “Rio has it all. I’ll get all its residents. I need it to win half plus one,” says Paes. “Bolsonaro was the talk of 2018. Now it’s Rio.”

Last Friday, August 14th, President Jair Bolsonaro was in town to inaugurate a civic-military school next to Crivella. It was the last day the mayor was allowed to attend this type of event, which is banned to incumbent officeholders who are candidates for Executive office in the three months leading up to the elections.

In recent months, Crivella has expedited inaugurations and launches of city hall initiatives. Emails sent to the press since the start of August reported at least ten such events. Even the installation of a tomography unit in a municipal hospital was handled as an inauguration.

The President had stated that he did not intend to support mayoral candidates, but hinted at support for the mayor during this ceremony.

“Some coincidences connect me to Mayor Marcelo Crivella. We were cadets in the same year, 1977,” he said. Then, Bolsonaro praised a proposal presented by Crivella when he was senator.

The fight against the novel coronavirus pandemic had a high cost for Governor Wilson Witzel, but it may have had positive repercussions for Crivella. According to those following the electoral scenario, in general, mayors in Brazil gained exposure and emerged stronger from the crisis.

In December 2019, amid a serious fiscal and health crisis, Crivella had a 72 percent rejection rate, according to Datafolha’s survey.

That month, the city government eventually suspended all payments and financial transactions. Delays in the transfer of salaries to healthcare workers led to a strike in the sector, which was already facing a critical situation.

Crivella went to Brasília to raise funds for the city government. The federal government answered his call for help and released R$152 million for the city’s healthcare system.

The mayor’s allies claim that Crivella’s disapproval rate is much lower today. Political scientist Ricardo Ismael, a professor at PUC-Rio (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro), says the mayor managed to improve his image during the pandemic.

“He began to show up a lot, he moved around in the city quite often. Of course he has accumulated wear and tear, but one and a half years ago he started lighting the [election] engine,” he says.

The pandemic will be used to sell Crivella as an efficient administrator. Meanwhile, Paes will be portrayed as a mayor who has dedicated more to the Olympics than to Rio’s residents. The strategy was signalled by Crivella at the inauguration of a school alongside Bolsonaro. Before the mayor’s speech, a resident surprised those present and shouted “Crivella, you are a Judas! The beach belongs to the people”, in reference to the City Hall’s initiative to reserve beach places.

In reaction, Crivella recalled that he had already been turned into a Judas doll during a parade in Sapucaí. According to him, the allegory was a reaction for having cut funds for the celebration.

“I gathered the staff and said: ‘I’m broke, Eduardo left me R$6 billion to pay for the Olympics. The only money I can take is for Carnival.'”

Then, he continued to taunt the ex-mayor: “What’s best for the people of Rio? The mayor parading down the avenue, with a tambourine, taking off his hat, being applauded? Or a booed mayor, being called a Judas, but the children having food?”

Political scientists and allies of the candidates assess that Crivella vs. Paes is the most likely second round scenario. The reason for this is that with the reduced street campaigning, voters will stick to familiar names.

Moreover, the crisis triggered by the pandemic could lead Rio’s citizens to seek security and choose candidates who have already run the city.

For political scientist Ricardo Ismael, Paes is the candidate with the best chance of reaching the second round. He claims one of the reasons for the ex-mayor’s defeat in 2018, when he ran for state government, was the association of his image with ex-governor Sérgio Cabral, sentenced to over 280 years in prison.

“He tried to dissociate himself, but failed. It may be that the electorate will give him a new chance, particularly since the events occurred in the state government. So far it hasn’t reached him. Paes has  strong name recognition, and the advantage of knowing the city’s machine and its troubles.”

The several pre-candidates for mayor of Rio de Janeirol:

Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Eduardo Paes (DEM – Democrats), Benedita da Silva (PT – Worker’s Party), Renata Souza (PSOL -Socialism and Liberty Party), Martha Rocha (PDT – Democratic Labor Party) or Bandeira de Mello (Rede – Sustainability Network), Paulo Marinho (PSDB -Social Democratic Party), Clarissa Garotinho (Pros – Republican Social Order Party), Cristiane Brasil (PTB -Brazilian Labor Party), Glória Heloiza or Otoni de Paula (PSC – Social Christian Party), and Rodrigo Amorim (PSL – Social Liberal Party).

Source: Folhapress