Chile’s Peso Weakens On Year-End Flow, While IPSA Hits A Fresh Record

Key Points

• USD/CLP traded near 914.9, about 1.15% above the official observed fixing, as year-end positioning dominated.
• Offshore demand and a $7.2 billion non-resident short peso stance in derivatives kept the market defensive despite supportive local fundamentals.
• Chile equities closed at a record, but momentum looks stretched and leadership remains narrow.

Chile’s peso opened Tuesday under pressure even as local equities extended a strong year. On screens around 08:02 UTC, USD/CLP was near 914.92, versus an official observed dollar reference of 904.54.

The gap is small in absolute terms, but meaningful in a market where year-end liquidity turns thin and flows can overpower headlines.

One Santiago-based trader at Banco Bci, Jorge Concha, described the latest move as driven by strong offshore buying from institutional and corporate accounts into the turn of the year.

That flow picture is reinforced by positioning: recent central bank-linked data cited in local coverage showed seven consecutive sessions of non-residents selling pesos via forwards and other derivatives, lifting the net short to more than $7.2 billion, the most aggressive stance since August 2024.

In practice, that kind of hedge can keep USD/CLP bid even when macro data are not deteriorating. Copper, often the peso’s natural ally, offered less protection than usual.

The market focus shifted to a cross-market repricing after a sharp session drop of about 4.6% in Comex copper while London prices stayed firmer, complicating the usual “copper up, peso up” shorthand. Our reporting has shown that such divergences between Comex and LME pricing have become more frequent during thin-liquidity periods, often amplifying peso volatility beyond what copper fundamentals alone would suggest.

Globally, the dollar backdrop was not the story. The dollar index hovered around 98, leaving Chile’s FX tape to be explained by positioning, commodity microstructure, and the calendar.

Near-term attention turns to Fed minutes and Chile labor data as the next scheduled catalysts. Meanwhile, Chile’s IPSA closed at 10,521.73, up 0.37% and at a fresh record, capping a two-session rise of roughly 1.07% after an intraday dip near 10,429.

The index’s reported 2025 gain of 56.21% marks its strongest year since 2009, but momentum looks extended: both daily and intraday readings sit in overbought territory, a setup that often precedes consolidation rather than a clean reversal.

Winners

• Offshore dollar buyers and hedgers who pressed the year-end tape
• Exporters with $ revenues, benefiting from a softer peso
• IPSA trend-followers riding record highs
• Entel, the day’s standout gainer (about +7%)
• Mallplaza and BCI, both advancing with the index

Losers

• Peso longs and carry positions caught in thin liquidity
• Importers facing higher near-term FX costs
• Traders fading the move below the 915–918 resistance band
• Dollar-based Chile ETF holders when CLP weakness dilutes equity gains (ECH last at 40.15)
• Smaller, liquidity-sensitive equities if the market shifts from momentum to profit-taking

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