Polarization Politics Returns In Rio Grande Do Sul As Leite Eyes The Senate

Key Points

• PT [left] and PL [right, Bolsonaro-aligned] are trying to turn the 2026 governor’s race into a single question: with or against the MST.
• Governor Eduardo Leite, now in PSD [center to center-right], is preparing a Senate run, but his chosen successor starts weak in early polling.
• Two Senate seats and post-flood rebuilding mean a slogan-driven campaign could carry real economic costs.

Rio Grande do Sul is heading into a high-stakes transition, and the campaign is being written before the first ballot is printed.

Eduardo Leite, who left PSDB [center to center-right] for PSD in 2025, is widely expected to seek the Senate in 2026. The move marks a sharp turn for a politician who once told journalists he would not be “anti-PT or anti-Bolsonarist” and would instead focus on a future agenda for Brazil—a positioning our reporting has shown he maintained through his 2022 presidential pre-candidacy as a modern, business-friendly figure with low rejection rates. That opens the governor’s seat. It also opens a temptation: shrink a complicated state contest into a national identity fight.

The chosen dividing line is the MST. The Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra is Brazil’s Landless Workers’ Movement. It is a powerful rural social movement that demands land reform. It organizes families, runs settlements, and stages marches.

Land conflicts shape Rio Grande do Sul campaigns

It also uses land occupations to pressure authorities. Supporters call that constitutional justice. Critics call it illegal invasion that weakens property rights and raises risk for agriculture and investment. The controversy is the point. It produces instant emotion.

PT has launched Edegar Pretto, Director-President of Conab, the federal food-supply agency that manages public stocks and market-support tools. His biography is central.

He is the son of Adão Pretto, a historic leader and one of the founders of the MST in Rio Grande do Sul. Allies see authenticity. Skeptics see a label that can repel the rural middle.

PL is backing federal deputy Luciano Zucco. His political capital comes from conflict, not technocratic governance. In 2023 he chaired the Chamber of Deputies’ inquiry into the MST.

The process generated months of confrontation and ended without a final report being voted. That unfinished ending still feeds campaign material. It also plays well on social media, where anti-occupation messaging travels fast.

Early polls show why both sides want to force a binary choice. A Genial/Quaest survey released on August 22, 2025 put Juliana Brizola (PDT [center-left]) at 21% and Zucco at 20%. Pretto had 11%.

Gabriel Souza (MDB [center]), the vice-governor Leite wants as successor, had 5%. A Brasmarket snapshot publicized in late December 2025 again showed Zucco leading, with Pretto second and Brizola third.

The Senate contest adds fuel. Two seats are in play. PT is lining up Paulo Pimenta. Manuela d’Ávila has not joined PSOL; her current party affiliation is not PSOL, and she is positioning for the ballot.

On the right, names like Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) and Marcel van Hattem (NOVO [right-liberal]) are being floated.

After the 2024 floods, voters may judge something simpler than ideology: who can rebuild without turning every decision into a permanent fight.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Brazil’s Math-Learning Crisis Is No Longer A School Problem. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Brazil politics and Latin American financial news.

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