Panama Canal Traffic Rises 4% as Giant Ships Drive Growth

The Panama Canal recorded 1,049 ocean transits in January 2026, a 3.8% increase over the same month last year, according to the latest operations report from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). The daily average climbed to 33.84 vessels, up from 32.6 in January 2025, pushing the waterway close to its estimated maximum sustainable throughput of 36 to 38 ships per day.

The most striking detail is the dominance of the biggest ships. Neopanamax vessels — those using the expanded locks inaugurated in 2016 — rose 6.3% and now represent 29% of total traffic. All 173 reserved Neopanamax slots were filled, exceeding 100% of programmed availability. This saturation reflects a structural shift: the canal is moving fewer ships overall than in its pre-expansion peak years but generating more revenue per transit as carriers bring larger, heavier vessels through the locks. Average daily tonnage has climbed from roughly 25,000 tonnes per transit in 2016 to over 37,000 today.

Panama Canal Traffic Recovers Amid Tensions

January also produced a milestone for the cruise segment. The Disney Adventure completed its inaugural canal transit as the largest passenger vessel ever to cross the waterway, carrying roughly 6,700 passengers and registering 208,000 gross tonnes. The ACP projects more than 40 Neopanamax cruise transits during the current fiscal year, which runs through September 2026.

The operational recovery is notable context for the geopolitical storm surrounding the canal. Trump has repeatedly threatened to reclaim sovereignty over the waterway, citing what he calls excessive tolls and Chinese influence through Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison, which operates two port terminals. Panama’s Supreme Court recently voided CK Hutchison’s license, and Beijing has responded with warnings that Panama will “pay a heavy price.” In January, President Mulino declared the crisis over, though U.S. military exercises on Panamanian soil and the unresolved BlackRock-led port acquisition suggest the chapter is far from closed.

For now, the canal’s traffic numbers tell their own story: the waterway that handles between 3% and 6% of global trade, serving 180 maritime routes across 170 countries, is busier than it has been since the 2023 drought forced emergency restrictions. The ships keep coming. The question is who will control the terms on which they pass.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Monday, February 16, 202

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