Brazilian Real Bets Rise to 60,538 Before the Vote
BRAZIL · MARKETS
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy. Its currency, the real, draws foreign money because Brazilian interest rates are far above those in the United States or Europe.
- —The background Every Friday the CFTC, the US futures regulator, reports who holds currency futures traded in Chicago. Speculators have bet on a stronger real every week since February 2025.
- —Why now Brazil votes for president, Congress and state governors on Sunday 4 October. In the three weeks to 22 September, speculators cut their net bets from a 2026 high of 72,813 contracts to 54,201.
- —What happened On Friday 2 October, the CFTC said speculators held a net long position of 60,538 contracts in real futures on Tuesday 29 September, up 6,337 from a week earlier.
- —The numbers Each contract covers 100,000 reais (about US$19,170). The net position is worth about 6.1 billion reais (about US$1.16 billion).
- —What it means for you The data show how heavily funds lean on the real. When large one-way bets unwind, the currency can move sharply, which affects travel budgets, transfers and investments.
- —Still open How funds positioned after Tuesday. The report is three days old when published and does not cover Sunday’s vote.
Speculators’ net bets on a stronger Brazilian real stood at 60,538 futures contracts on Tuesday 29 September. That was 6,337 contracts more than a week earlier, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday 2 October.
The figures cover the last full week before Brazilians vote for president, Congress and state governors on Sunday 4 October. Their net position rose for the first time after three weekly declines.
What the report shows
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report counts open positions in US futures markets. They include currency contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
The figures are taken on Tuesday and published on Friday. Traders are sorted into groups, and “non-commercial” traders, mostly hedge funds and other investment funds, are the usual gauge of speculative sentiment.
On Tuesday they held 96,067 contracts that gain if the real strengthens and 35,529 that gain if it weakens. Over the week they added 11,315 long contracts and 4,978 short ones.
Open interest, the total of all open real contracts held by every type of trader, was 146,704.
Why funds bet on the real
The main draw is interest. Brazil’s central bank has cut its Selic rate from 15% to 13.75% this year, still far above US and European rates.
Investors who borrow in dollars to hold reais pocket that gap, a strategy known as the carry trade. The bet sours if the real falls by more than the interest earned.
Positioning has swung widely in 2026. The net long fell to 17,617 contracts in early January, then climbed to a 2026 high of 72,813 on 1 September.
The latest figure is 17% below that peak.
An election-week market
The real weakened in the week the report covers. A US dollar cost 5.1006 reais per dollar on 22 September and 5.2019 on 29 September, according to RT live market data.
It closed at 5.2176 per dollar on Thursday 1 October. The Ibovespa, the main São Paulo stock index, rose 1.4% on 30 September as banks led a rebound.
What it means for foreign readers
For investors, the report shows how exposed funds are to the real going into the vote. If they sell in a hurry, the currency can drop quickly; if they add, it can firm.
For visitors and anyone sending money to Brazil, a weaker real means more reais per dollar. Nothing in the report says where the currency will be after Sunday.
What comes next
The next report, due on Friday 9 October, will show positions on Tuesday 6 October, two days after the first round. A run-off, if needed, is on 25 October.
A larger net long does not mean the real will rise. Crowded positions can unwind fast when news surprises.
Chicago futures are also only a slice of the market. Much more trading in the real happens elsewhere, including dollar futures on B3, the São Paulo exchange.
What is the CFTC Commitments of Traders report?
It is a weekly report by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US futures regulator, showing open positions in US futures markets by type of trader. Data are taken on Tuesday and published on Friday at 3:30 p.m. US Eastern time.
What does a net long position in the real mean?
Speculators hold more contracts that gain if the real strengthens against the dollar than contracts that gain if it weakens. Each Chicago real contract covers 100,000 reais (about US$19,170).
Does the report predict where the real will go?
No. It shows how funds are positioned, not where the currency will move. Large one-sided positions can amplify a move when they unwind.
Sources: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Commitments of Traders, CME futures only, positions as of 29 September 2026 (published 2 October 2026), CFTC Public Reporting Environment, legacy futures-only history, CFTC, 2026 release schedule, Banco Central do Brasil, Selic history (Copom statement of 16 September 2026). Exchange rates: RT live market data, closes of 22 and 29 September and 1 October 2026. All retrieved 2 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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