Mexico’s Investment Paradox: Factories Are Booming, But Local Bosses Are Hitting The Brakes

Mexico is selling a success story to the world. Global manufacturers are moving in, nearshoring is the buzzword, and foreign money keeps flowing. Yet many Mexican business owners are quietly slowing down, not speeding up.

A new survey by IPADE Business School of 1,477 executives shows how sharply confidence has dropped. In early 2024, just over half of them – 54.4% – thought it was a good moment to invest in Mexico. By late 2024 that had fallen to 36.8%.

It recovered only slightly to 39.3% in the first half of 2025, then slipped again to 35.2% in the second half of the year. In most regions, only about one in three leaders still say “yes” to investing now.

Sales expectations tell a similar story. At the start of 2025, 77% of executives expected higher revenues than in 2024. By mid-year, that share had fallen to 66%. Roughly one in three now expects to finish 2025 with lower income.

In powerhouse states such as Nuevo León, Jalisco and the Mexico City metro area, optimism about growth has clearly cooled as the year has gone on. Executives still trust themselves more than the system around them.

On a scale from one to ten, they rate the chances of meeting their personal goals at 7.5 and their business goals at 7.0. But when asked about Mexico’s prospects, the score falls to 5.6, down from 6.5 in early 2024. That gap is the heart of the problem.

What worries them most are decisions made at home. Many see the recent judicial reform as a direct blow to legal certainty, the basic idea that rules are clear and stable. Legal uncertainty has jumped from a second-tier issue to a top concern.

Insecurity and the current strategy against organised crime also weigh heavily on their answers. Most say domestic factors matter far more than anything happening abroad. At the same time, foreign direct investment is breaking records as big players build plants and logistics hubs.

For expats and foreign readers, this is the real story behind the headline boom: Mexico risks becoming a two-speed economy, where global groups expand while many local firms delay hiring and new projects, waiting for stronger courts, safer streets and a more predictable playing field.

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