Libertarian Leap: Argentina’s Historic Trade Surplus Under Milei

Argentina is on track for a historic trade surplus in 2024, propelled by grain and energy exports under President Javier Milei. Milei took office in December 2023 amidst economic turmoil with inflation at a 32-year high of 211%.

His administration quickly launched an economic stabilization program aiming for fiscal balance and ending monetary emission. Milei’s policies, though controversial, are beginning to yield results.

Analysts predict a trade surplus of $18 to $19 billion, surpassing the previous record from 2009. This surge largely stems from favorable weather boosting grain exports and relaxed currency controls.

From January to November 2024, Argentina amassed a $17.20 billion trade surplus, a stark contrast to the previous year’s $7.94 billion deficit. The energy sector, particularly Vaca Muerta’s shale reserves, has significantly contributed.

Vaca Muerta holds an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas. By Q3 2024, oil production hit 400,000 barrels daily, with projections to reach a million by 2030.

Argentina also achieved its first energy surplus in 15 years during 2024, with exports at $4.81 billion and imports at $3.79 billion. Agricultural exports continue to dominate, positioning Argentina as a leading exporter of processed soy, corn, and beef.

Milei’s economic approach includes reducing inflation sharply from 300% to 117.8% by year-end. It also involves achieving nine consecutive months of fiscal surplus and implementing a 50% peso devaluation to enhance competitiveness.

Government spending dropped by 30% from the prior year. However, these gains come with challenges; poverty has exceeded 50%, and the economy contracted in the first half of 2024.

Yet, signs of recovery emerged with a 3.9% growth in Q3, suggesting a possible turnaround if the balance between economic stability and social welfare can be maintained.

More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

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