Iron Ore Holds Near $106 as China Reopens and Buyers Watch Port Stocks

Key Points

• Iron ore swaps hovered around $106–$107 a tonne as China’s futures market reopened and mills began pre-holiday restocking.
• Rising seaborne supply and swelling Chinese port inventories are capping rallies, even as some domestic mines stay constrained.
• The chart is stabilizing on the 4-hour view, but the daily trend still looks range-bound and cautious.

Iron ore started the week steady, with the SGX IODEX (TSI) contract last at $106.00 a tonne at 07:49 UTC, after trading a tight $105.95–$106.05 range (open $105.95).

Another widely followed benchmark feed showed “Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China (TSI) Swap Futures” near $107.17, last updated late on Jan. 2.

Onshore, China’s Dalian contract pointed to firmer local pricing, with the most-traded May contract around 795.5 yuan a tonne (about $113.94) early in the session, while the SGX February reference was cited near $105.65.

The overnight tone reflected a simple reality: China’s markets were reopening after the New Year holiday, and the first business is often inventory.

Restocking ahead of Lunar New Year has been a near-term support, and weekly mill inventories of five major carbon steel products were reported down 1.1% to 3.81 million tonnes for Dec. 26–31.

But the upside remains hard work. Seaborne shipments from Australia and Brazil were reported up 8.6% week-on-week for Dec. 22–28, and Chinese port inventories kept rising, reaching 159.7 million tonnes by Dec. 31, up 0.7% on the week.

Iron ore range holds as arrivals dip and traders trim risk

Arrivals for Dec. 22–28 were lower at 26 million tonnes, which helps explain why price has not broken down, even as stockpiles swell. A separate support comes from constrained domestic ore supply, with some mines limiting output under environmental measures.

Markets are also watching structure, not just spot. Beijing’s push to consolidate buying power through CMRG, alongside reports of BHP vessel delays off Chinese ports during supply talks, is a reminder that the “rules of trade” can move sentiment.

Positioning looks cautious. SGX open interest was around 369,480 contracts, while one listing showed heavy turnover near 103,000 lots alongside an open-interest drop of roughly 12,900, consistent with roll and trimming.

Technically, the 4-hour chart shows momentum improving, with RSI at 51.53 and a positive MACD histogram (+0.15) even as the MACD line stays below zero (-0.20).

The daily picture is less confident: RSI sits at 48.32 and the MACD histogram remains negative (-0.24). Traders will likely treat $105.15 as nearby support and $106.40 as the first resistance to clear before calling anything more than a range.

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