Rio Times Daily Market Brief • Chile
The Big Three
The IPSA surged +2.13% to 10,640.08 — closing at the session high — as the global Iran de-escalation rally swept through Santiago. The index opened at 10,418.06, dipped briefly to 10,381.13, then climbed relentlessly to touch 10,640.08 at the close. The index remains 9.2% below its all-time high of 11,721.38 set on January 28.
Chile posted its lowest monthly copper output in nearly nine years. February production totaled 378,554 metric tons — down 8.5% from January and 4.8% year-over-year — the worst since March 2017’s Escondida strike. Declining ore grades and key mine underperformance are structural headwinds for the world’s top producer.
President Kast completed his first three weeks in office after his March 11 inauguration. His pro-business agenda — including a planned corporate tax cut from 27% to 23% and streamlined mining permits — remains the key domestic catalyst. Morgan Stanley’s year-end IPSA target of 13,700 is premised on successful implementation.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P IPSA | 10,640.08 | +2.13% (+222.02) |
| USD/CLP | ~925 | peso −4.77% monthly |
| Copper (LME) | ~$12,850/mt | recovering from $11K dip |
| Chile Copper Output (Feb) | 378,554 mt | −8.5% MoM (9-yr low) |
| Brent Crude (May) | $118.35 | +4.94% (headwind for Chile) |
| BCCh Policy Rate | ~5.00% | on hold (inflation at target) |
| S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | +2.91% (best since May) |
02 Equities
The IPSA Chile today surged +2.13% to 10,640.08, closing at the session high in a textbook bullish marubozu pattern as the global Iran de-escalation rally overpowered concerns about Chile’s copper production shortfall. The S&P 500 gained 2.91%, the Dow jumped 1,125 points, and the Nasdaq surged 3.83% — all posting their best sessions since May. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Chilean stock market IPSA today and Latin American financial markets.
The catalyst was a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump told aides he was willing to end military operations in Iran even without the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening, followed by unconfirmed reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian was open to ending the conflict. For Chile’s import-dependent economy, the de-escalation narrative is particularly significant: falling oil prices directly reduce the current account deficit and ease inflationary pressure. Copper-sensitive names and shipping stocks likely led, consistent with the pattern seen in last week’s copper rebound session when Vapores surged 5.82% and Quinenco gained 4.53%.
03 Copper: Nine-Year Production Low
Bloomberg reported Monday that Chile’s February copper output fell to 378,554 metric tons — down 8.5% from January and 4.8% year-over-year. This was the lowest monthly reading since March 2017, when the Escondida strike paralyzed the country’s biggest mine. The decline reflects structural challenges: declining ore grades at mature operations, water scarcity in the Atacama, and underperformance at key mines including Codelco‘s aging portfolio.
Paradoxically, the supply shortfall is bullish for copper prices and therefore for Chile’s terms of trade. JP Morgan projects a 2026 refined copper deficit of 330,000 tons, and Cochilco raised its 2026 price forecast to $4.95 per pound. LME copper hit an all-time high of $13,300 per metric ton in January before correcting to roughly $12,850. The copper super-cycle thesis — driven by AI data center demand, electrification, and chronic supply constraints — remains intact. Thirteen copper projects worth $14.8 billion are expected to hit key milestones in 2026, with seven aiming to start operations and add nearly 500,000 tons of annual capacity.
04 Currency & Monetary Policy
The peso closed near CLP 925 per dollar, having weakened 4.77% over the month as global risk aversion and oil above $100 pressured import-dependent Chile. The currency has given back gains from the post-Kast election euphoria that took USD/CLP below 914 in December. A 1% copper price change correlates with a 0.3–0.4% peso move, meaning the copper recovery provides structural support even as the Iran oil premium weighs.
The Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) has held rates near 5.0% after completing its easing cycle. Inflation reached the 3% target by early 2026, well ahead of schedule, aided by peso appreciation and the disinflation in imported goods. The BCCh’s December IPoM projected inflation to remain at target through the forecast horizon, with the copper windfall boosting fiscal revenues and reducing the current account deficit. However, oil above $118 threatens to reverse the imported disinflation that was one of the key tailwinds.
05 Political & Kast Administration
President José Antonio Kast was inaugurated on March 11 after winning the December runoff with 58.3% of the vote — Chile’s most significant rightward shift since 1990. His pro-business agenda centers on a corporate tax cut from 27% to 23%, streamlined mining permitting, deregulation, and a law-and-order approach to community disruptions that have delayed mining projects. Capital Economics noted markets had largely priced in the victory but warned that fiscal tightening plus lower copper prices could slow growth.
Goldman Sachs projects Chile’s GDP growth at just 1.9% for 2026, while Bloomberg consensus expects IPSA EPS growth of 14% in 2026 and 15% in 2027 — driven by banks, retail, and real estate. The key risk is that Kast’s deregulation agenda faces the same legislative constraints that hampered Boric’s reform ambitions. As analyzed in the latest Latin American Pulse, Chile’s copper-driven re-rating has the highest beta to global risk sentiment among LATAM markets.
06 Technical Analysis — IPSA Daily
Monday’s session produced a strong bullish candle with virtually no upper shadow — the close at 10,640.08 was the session high. The open at 10,418.06 saw a brief dip to 10,381.13 (the session low) before a steady rally throughout the day. This close-at-high pattern signals strong buying conviction and momentum continuation.
The MACD reads 33.93 / −91.93 / −125.87. The histogram remains deeply negative, but the MACD line has turned positive and is rising — the first bullish signal since the correction from January’s all-time highs began. RSI stands at 53.28 on the weekly and 43.30 on the daily. The weekly RSI above 50 is constructive, while the daily at 43 has significant room to run before approaching overbought territory. The index has reclaimed the 10,460 zone where multiple moving averages converge and is pressing toward the upper Bollinger Band.
07 Key Levels
| Level | IPSA |
| All-Time High | 11,721.38 |
| Resistance 2 | 10,864.94 |
| Resistance 1 | 10,697.04 |
| Current Close | 10,640.08 |
| Support 1 | 10,460.92 |
| Support 2 | 10,385.23 |
| Support 3 | 10,183.34 |
08 Global Context
Wall Street surged on Iran peace hopes — Dow +2.49% (+1,125 pts to 46,341), S&P 500 +2.91% (6,528), Nasdaq +3.83% — all posting their best day since May. The moves came after Trump told aides he was willing to end military hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, plus unconfirmed reports Iran’s president was open to ending the war with guarantees.
Brent May futures settled at $118.35 — highest close since June 2022 — capping a record +60% monthly gain. WTI fell $1.50 to $101.38. For Chile specifically, the Iran dynamic cuts both ways: de-escalation would lower oil (positive for Chile’s energy import bill) while potentially reducing the geopolitical premium on copper (negative for Chile’s export revenue). The net effect depends on whether the oil decline exceeds the copper pullback — historically, Chile benefits from oil-down/copper-up environments.
09 Looking Ahead
The February copper output data released Monday adds urgency to the supply narrative. With Chile producing at nine-year lows and 13 projects worth $14.8 billion targeting 2026 milestones, the Kast administration’s ability to accelerate permitting becomes a near-term catalyst. Community relations — not markets or government policy — remain the biggest risk to the project pipeline, according to mining consultancy GEM.
The FOMC meets April 28–29, where oil-driven inflation complicates the Fed’s rate path — Goldman has pushed its first-cut call to September. Higher-for-longer US rates pressure the peso and tighten global dollar liquidity. Copper remains the single most important variable for both the IPSA and the peso: Cochilco’s 2026 forecast of $4.95/lb assumes stable Chinese demand. As covered in our recent IPSA copper analysis, a sustained break above the 10,665 moving average cluster would be the most technically significant event since the January correction began.
10 Verdict
Monday’s +2.13% close-at-high marubozu is the most constructive technical signal since the correction from January’s all-time highs began. The MACD line has turned positive, RSI at 53/43 has room to run, and the index reclaimed the key 10,460 moving average convergence zone.
Bias: Cautiously bullish. The global relief rally, copper’s structural deficit thesis (reinforced by the nine-year production low), and the Kast pro-business agenda all favor continuation toward the 10,697–10,865 resistance band. However, the peso’s 4.77% monthly decline, oil above $118, and the fact that the IPSA remains 9.2% below its ATH after pricing in significant good news argue for patience. A close above 10,697 confirms the recovery; a reversal below 10,385 support signals the correction has further to run. The 10,183 level is the line in the sand.