If African Swine Fever arrives in Brazil, more than US$5.5 billion would be lost – Embrapa

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) estimated that the arrival of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Brazil would lead to economic losses of up to 5.5 billion dollars in the first year alone.

Their figures indicated that currently, 23% of the pork produced in Brazil s exported, so the first effect of the disease’s arrival would be that this volume would remain in the domestic market, causing surpluses.

Luizinho Caron, a researcher in the virology area of the organization, explained that the excess supply would result in a sharp drop in prices, in addition to losses for producers and the loss of direct and indirect jobs in the pork sector.

He told the Brazilian site Money Times that the priority at the moment must be to help infected countries to eradicate the disease and improve their biosecurity measures to prevent its spread, adding that just as it has a presence in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, it may also have reached other regions.

Janice Zanella, who also works in the virology area of Embrapa, explained that the economic impact on Brazilian territory was calculated based on its effects in the United States, where a loss of US$16,500 billion was estimated.

She added that due to the risk posed by this virus, all nations must be prepared to recognize and diagnose ASF immediately and effectively since it is impossible to design a strategy that guarantees zero risk of entry.