Global Economy Briefing for September 30, 2025

September closed with the world economy moving—but more gingerly. In the United States, confidence and activity cooled.

Conference Board consumer confidence slipped to 94.2 (from 97.8), the Chicago PMI fell to 40.6, and regional services gauges in Texas turned negative.

Housing eased again: the FHFA house-price index dipped 0.1% month on month and the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index fell 0.3% month on month, with annual gains down to 1.8%.

Offsetting the softness, job openings edged up to 7.23 million and weekly retail sales remained solid at 5.9% year on year—evidence the labor market and consumption haven’t cracked.

Europe diverged. Germany’s inflation firmed (CPI and HICP both 2.4% year on year), unemployment rose by 14,000 with the rate steady at 6.3%, and retail volumes fell 0.2% month on month.

France stayed disinflationary: CPI 1.2% year on year and a sharp 1.0% drop on the month; HICP 1.1% year on year.

Italy’s inflation held at 1.6% (HICP 1.8%) while industrial sales grew 0.4% month on month and 1.2% year on year.

Global Economy Briefing for September 30, 2025

Spain’s current-account surplus widened to €6.27 billion. Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator improved to 98.0.

The UK expanded 0.3% quarter on quarter (1.4% year on year) but posted a wider current-account deficit of £28.9 billion; business investment fell 1.1% on the quarter yet remained 3.0% above a year earlier.

Asia-Pacific was steady but cautious. Australia’s central bank held rates at 3.60%. Japan’s pipeline looked strong—construction orders up 38.9% year on year—yet housing starts fell 9.8%, signaling softer households. Hong Kong’s broad money growth slowed to 4.0% year on year.

From an emerging-market lens, stresses are visible. Brazil’s unemployment held at 5.6%, but August public finances underscored tight fiscal space: net debt rose to 64.2% of GDP and the monthly deficit remained large even as it narrowed from July; gross debt stabilized near 77.5%.

South Africa’s trade surplus shrank to 3.97 billion rand and money/credit growth cooled. India’s central-government deficit ballooned in August and external debt climbed to $747.2 billion.

The Story Behind the Story

This is what late-cycle looks like: U.S. consumers are tiring, Europe is splitting between a firmer-price Germany and a disinflationary France, and Asia’s goods cycle is uneven.

Policymakers are cautious because buffers are thinner—debt is higher, fiscal room scarcer, and the easy disinflation wins are behind us.

The question for the fourth quarter is whether modest pockets of strength—Italy’s industry, Spain’s external balances, steady U.S. hiring demand—can offset broadening signs of slowdown without fresh policy support.

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