Daily Global Economy Overview — Monday, September 29, 2025

The day’s tape pointed to a cautiously improving disinflation backdrop in Europe alongside a firmer U.S. housing pulse and mixed signals in Asia.

Eurozone core CPI edged lower and survey inflation expectations cooled, but industry sentiment stayed weak and Spain’s headline inflation ticked up.

In the U.S., pending home sales jumped, even as regional manufacturing softened. Japan’s leading index improved while the coincident gauge dipped, consistent with a stop-start recovery.

Across major EMs, Brazil showed firmer prices and steady hiring, India’s industrial momentum moderated, and Mexico’s jobless rate stayed near historic lows.

United States

Pending home sales rose 4.0% m/m in August and the index climbed to 74.7, hinting at a near-term pop in contract signings despite tight resale supply.

The Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to −8.7, underscoring a soft factory pulse. Front-end funding stayed steady: 3-month bills stopped at 3.860% and 6-month at 3.715%.

Fed speakers (Waller, Williams, Bostic) kept the focus on how resilient consumption and easing inflation shape the glide path.

Euro area

Core CPI eased to 2.3% y/y in September. The European Commission’s sentiment suite showed economic sentiment at 95.5 (up slightly), consumer confidence unchanged at −14.9, services sentiment a touch softer (3.6), and industrial sentiment a bit weaker (−10.3).

Selling price expectations stayed low (6.9) and consumer inflation expectations fell to 24.0. Spain was a notable divergence: CPI accelerated to 2.9% y/y (HICP 3.0%), though the national CPI fell −0.4% m/m; retail sales eased to 4.5% y/y.

France’s jobseekers declined to 3.022 million. Italy’s non-EU trade surplus narrowed to €1.78bn and BTPs priced slightly higher yields (5-yr 2.94%, 10-yr 3.62%).

Net-net: disinflation is progressing, but goods sector sentiment remains subdued and Spain’s prices firmed on energy/base effects.

United Kingdom

Household credit and money ticked higher, housing demand mixed. Consumer credit rose £1.692bn; M4 money growth picked up 0.4% m/m; mortgage approvals slipped to 64.7k and mortgage lending cooled to £4.31bn.

Net lending to individuals was £6.0bn. Together, the data suggest cautious consumers with a modest credit impulse and a still-constrained mortgage channel. BoE speakers (Ramsden) remain in focus for guidance.

Japan

Leading indicators improved (leading index 106.1; +1.1% m/m) while the coincident index fell −1.8% m/m, a mixed signal pointing to softer current activity but a slightly better pipeline.

BoJ board member Noguchi’s remarks keep attention on the pace of normalization amid uneven domestic momentum.

India

Industrial production grew 4.0% y/y in August (down from 4.3%), with manufacturing output up 3.8% m/m versus a stronger prior pace.

Cumulative IP improved to 2.8%. Bank loan growth held at 10.3% y/y while deposit growth eased to 9.8%; FX reserves were broadly steady at $702.6bn.

The credit-deposit gap still points to firm domestic demand, but momentum is cooler than in early Q2.

Brazil

Inflation and labor both firmed at the margin. The IGP-M rose 0.42% m/m in September (from 0.36%), bank lending increased 0.5% m/m in August, and CAGED net payrolls printed 147.4k (below consensus but above July). The mix argues for patience on the local easing path.

Mexico

Labor conditions remain tight. The unemployment rate held at 2.6% s.a., while the n.s.a. rate edged up to 2.9%. With joblessness low and inflation moderating, the policy debate centers on how quickly to relax restrictive settings without reigniting price pressures.

Norway

Private credit cooled and consumption softened: the credit indicator eased to 4.0% y/y, core retail sales rose a modest 0.2% m/m, and broad money (M3) edged higher. The data support a cautiously neutral stance.

Spain and Italy (additional details)

Spain’s business confidence improved to −5.7 (from −6.7), consistent with the euro-area sentiment uptick.

Italy’s confidence split: consumer at 96.8 (higher), business at 87.3 (flat). Auction results showed a small drift higher in funding costs, but demand remained orderly.

What it adds up to

Growth: U.S. housing demand showed welcome traction; Europe is edging forward in services while manufacturing stays soft; India’s output cooled; Japan is mixed.

Inflation: Euro core disinflation continued even as Spain’s headline rose; Brazil’s wholesale-style gauge ticked up; U.K. money/credit re-accelerated slightly but mortgages remain constrained.

Policy and markets: With European disinflation intact and U.S. housing stabilizing, the policy map stays asynchronous—ECB cautious, BoE data-dependent, BoJ gradual. Rate differentials and front-end funding costs remain the key transmission channels into Q4.

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