Food production until 2031 – who are the protagonists and who will feed the world

In its Outlook 2022/2031, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) gives news of its expected world food production up to 2031.

Naturally, an analysis of this work contains many numbers, which makes it somewhat tiresome.

Still, it is worth a cursory look at the data, considering that the increases indicated are surprisingly low.

Here we will deal with soybeans, corn, wheat, meat, and sugar and their five major producing countries.

In the case of soybeans, from 2022 to 2031, the country with the highest production growth rate is expected to be China: 1.2%, to reach 21 million tons (Mt).

Brazil and Argentina will be almost even in the growth range: 0.87% (but Brazil will produce 147 Mt and Argentina 53 Mt).

The United States at 0.74%, reaching 129 Mt. The European Union, to have an idea, should grow at 2.23%, but the volume produced may compare to a maximum of 3.8 Mt.

And the world total will be 411 Mt.

For corn, the global production in 2031 should be 1,335 Mt, under the leadership of the United States (growing 0.57%, producing 405 Mt), followed by China (with an increase of 1.09%; the volume of 297 Mt); then comes Brazil (about 123 Mt, growing 1.64%, the highest of all).

The European Union will reach 68 Mt; Argentina, 66 Mt.

The world wheat crop in 2031 will reach 840 Mt, and Brazil will still be a tiny producer, with less than 8 Mt, but growing 1.52%, below only Russia, which will increase 1.55%, reaching 92 Mt.

But the big producers will be China (136 Mt), the EU (126 Mt), and India (124 Mt). The US will produce 52 Mt.

In sugar, Brazil will have the most significant growth (2.57%) and will continue with the title of world’s largest producer, with 44 Mt, followed by India (32 Mt, growing almost zero), EU (16 Mt), China (10.5 Mt) and USA (8.5 Mt).

Here is a noteworthy observation for this essential food: no other country will grow more than 1%, less than half the increase of Brazil. The world total should reach 190 Mt.

In meat, there are different approximations.

In beef, the U.S. should be the largest producer in 2031, with 12.5 Mt, followed by Brazil (9.4 Mt), China (7.2 Mt), the EU (6.6 Mt), and India (2.7 Mt).

But many other countries will be producers since the world total will reach 76 Mt.

Pork production will be led by China (57 Mt), followed by the EU (22 Mt), the USA (13.2 Mt), Brazil, and Russia (4.6 Mt).

But the most consumed meat will be chicken, with a world production of 153.8 Mt since pork will be 129 Mt and beef 76 Mt.

China should be the largest producer, almost tied with the United States (both at 24 Mt), followed by Brazil (15 Mt), the EU (14 Mt), and Russia (4.8 Mt).

As can be seen, Brazil will always be among the top five producers, except for wheat.

But, even with this product, we can surprise the FAO statisticians: the country will plant in the Cerrado, and has already excellent results.