Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil’s 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts
Analysts have recently adjusted their forecasts for Brazil’s 2024 economic outlook, revising inflation and GDP growth predictions upwards. The forecast for the basic interest rate in 2025 has also increased.
The Central Bank’s Focus Report, released on Monday, revealed these new projections. The inflation estimate for 2024 has risen slightly from 4.38% to 4.39%. This marks the second consecutive week of increase for this figure.
Analysts expect the basic interest rate to remain at 11.75% in 2024. However, they have adjusted their 2025 projection upwards by 0.25 percentage points to 11.0%. This change suggests a slower decline in interest rates than previously anticipated.
The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has also seen a minor increase. It now stands at 3.01%, up from the previous 3.0% estimate. This small uptick indicates a slightly more optimistic view of economic expansion.
Inflation expectations for regulated prices within the IPCA index have risen again. The 2024 projection increased from 4.79% to 4.88%. This change could impact overall inflation figures in the coming year.
The exchange rate forecast for 2024 remains stable at R$ 5.40 per dollar ($ 0.96). However, the 2025 projection has increased slightly to match this figure. This suggests expectations of a relatively stable currency in the medium term.
Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil’s 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts
Brazil’s primary budget result projections for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged. Analysts expect deficits of 0.60% and 0.73% of GDP, respectively. The 2026 forecast improved marginally, showing a slightly smaller deficit.
The trade balance outlook for 2024 has been revised downwards slightly. Analysts now predict a surplus of US$ 80 billion, down from US$ 80.05 billion. This minor adjustment suggests a cautiously optimistic view of Brazil’s export performance.
These economic forecasts provide valuable insights into Brazil’s expected financial landscape. They reflect a complex interplay of factors shaping the country’s economic future. As always, these projections remain subject to change as new data emerges.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.52%
205,835.29
-0.52%
65,246.95
+0.42%
11,164.13
+0.36%
2,896,853
+0.95%
2,589.04
+0.25%
60,220.93
+0.91%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,835.29 | -0.52% | +21.85% | 206,911.89 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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