Business - Brazil Market Reports

Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil’s 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts

By RT Staff Reporters · October 14, 2024 · 2 min read

Analysts have recently adjusted their forecasts for Brazil’s 2024 economic outlook, revising inflation and GDP growth predictions upwards. The forecast for the basic interest rate in 2025 has also increased.

The Central Bank’s Focus Report, released on Monday, revealed these new projections. The inflation estimate for 2024 has risen slightly from 4.38% to 4.39%. This marks the second consecutive week of increase for this figure.

Analysts expect the basic interest rate to remain at 11.75% in 2024. However, they have adjusted their 2025 projection upwards by 0.25 percentage points to 11.0%. This change suggests a slower decline in interest rates than previously anticipated.

Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil's 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts. (Photo Internet reproduction) — Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil’s 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts. (Photo Internet reproduction)

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The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has also seen a minor increase. It now stands at 3.01%, up from the previous 3.0% estimate. This small uptick indicates a slightly more optimistic view of economic expansion.

Inflation expectations for regulated prices within the IPCA index have risen again. The 2024 projection increased from 4.79% to 4.88%. This change could impact overall inflation figures in the coming year.

The exchange rate forecast for 2024 remains stable at R$ 5.40 per dollar ($ 0.96). However, the 2025 projection has increased slightly to match this figure. This suggests expectations of a relatively stable currency in the medium term.

Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil’s 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts

Brazil’s primary budget result projections for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged. Analysts expect deficits of 0.60% and 0.73% of GDP, respectively. The 2026 forecast improved marginally, showing a slightly smaller deficit.

The trade balance outlook for 2024 has been revised downwards slightly. Analysts now predict a surplus of US$ 80 billion, down from US$ 80.05 billion. This minor adjustment suggests a cautiously optimistic view of Brazil’s export performance.

These economic forecasts provide valuable insights into Brazil’s expected financial landscape. They reflect a complex interplay of factors shaping the country’s economic future. As always, these projections remain subject to change as new data emerges.

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Brazil — Live Market Board

B3 · São Paulo
Jul 24, 2026 · 03:28

Ibovespa · benchmark

176,723.62
-0.46%

+30.55% over 12 months

Market breadth · 13 names

23% advancing

3 ▲ advancing10 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.08

-0.04%

EUR / BRL

5.79

+0.14%

Selic rate

14.25%

·

Brent crude

100.00

-0.69%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Energy

+1.08%

PETR4, PRIO3

Mining

-0.24%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Materials

-0.54%

SUZB3

Utilities

-1.04%

ENEV3

Financials

-1.11%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Industrials

-1.15%

WEGE3, RENT3

Consumer Staples

-1.30%

ABEV3

Consumer Disc.

-4.27%

AZZA3

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil
176,723.62
-0.46%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico
66,247.47
-1.56%

S&P IPSAChile
10,916.70
-0.84%

S&P MERVALArgentina
3,319,522
-1.78%

MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,283.28
-0.60%

BVL S&P PerúPeru
57,575.02
—

Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
IBOV	176,723.62	-0.46%	+30.55%	177,547.57	—	—	—
USD/BRL	5.08	-0.04%	-7.87%	5.08	5.09	5.08	—
SELIC	14.25%		—	—	—	—	—
PETR4	42.95	+0.87%	+34.26%	42.58	42.95	—	—
VALE3	75.68	+0.77%	+31.80%	75.10	75.68	—	—
ITUB4	42.56	-0.79%	+23.87%	42.90	42.87	42.27	22,565,100
BBDC4	18.72	-1.32%	+17.88%	18.97	18.99	18.68	19,154,400
BBAS3	20.93	-0.76%	+3.56%	21.09	21.08	20.78	18,427,800
B3SA3	15.65	-1.57%	+16.88%	15.90	15.82	15.48	41,084,700
ABEV3	15.92	-1.30%	+17.14%	16.13	16.11	15.84	18,905,100
WEGE3	45.67	-2.29%	+20.15%	46.74	46.86	44.68	13,581,200
PRIO3	60.54	+1.29%	+42.55%	59.77	61.35	60.54	6,347,300
SUZB3	42.43	-0.54%	-18.01%	42.66	42.82	41.78	2,360,100
RENT3	37.14	+0.00%	+2.51%	37.14	37.19	36.03	13,206,600
AZZA3	17.05	-4.27%	-54.07%	17.81	17.71	17.03	2,368,800
CSNA3	5.30	-1.49%	-39.57%	5.38	5.30	—	—
GGBR4	24.06	+0.00%	+39.72%	24.06	24.41	23.83	7,631,200
ENEV3	25.70	-1.04%	+83.70%	25.97	25.80	25.45	3,301,300

Largest moves today

AZZA3
17.05
-4.27%

WEGE3
45.67
-2.29%

B3SA3
15.65
-1.57%

CSNA3
5.30
-1.49%

BBDC4
18.72
-1.32%

ABEV3
15.92
-1.30%

PRIO3
60.54
+1.29%

ENEV3
25.70
-1.04%

The session read

The Ibovespa eased 0.46%, with breadth negative — 3 of 13 names higher. Energy led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.

From The Rio Times

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Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil’s 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts

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Focus Report: Slight Uptick in Brazil’s 2024 Inflation and Growth Forecasts

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