BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 11:55 p.m. ET · Source: TV Globo interview, reported by O Tempo and Poder360
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Flávio Bolsonaro told TV Globo he would cut at least 10 federal ministries and keep minimum wage rises above inflation if elected.
- The ministries He said the government has 39 ministries and he would have at least 10 fewer.
- The wage pledge He would keep the policy of raising the minimum wage above inflation and would not unlink pensions from it.
- Work week He said he will not reverse the end of the 6×1 work schedule, which Congress promulgated on Friday 16 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (16 October, 11:49 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 23% and 22%), as of 17 October, 12:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Which ministries would go, and how much the cut would save, was not set out in the interview.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative candidate for president, promised on Friday 16 October to cut at least 10 federal ministries and keep minimum wage rises above inflation. He spoke in an interview on TV Globo, Brazil’s biggest broadcaster, nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
He faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, in the vote on Sunday 25 October. The pledges tell investors in the United States how a Bolsonaro government might balance the budget in Latin America’s largest economy.
What Flávio Bolsonaro Promised
Flávio said the government now has 39 ministries and that he would cut at least 10, O Tempo reported. He also said he wants to balance public accounts without hurting the people who most need government help.
Asked whether he would keep the policy of raising the minimum wage above inflation, he answered “Yes”, Poder360 reported. He also said he would not unlink pensions from the minimum wage, O Tempo reported.
Spending Floors and the Work Week
Flávio said he does not intend to change the Constitution to remove the minimum spending levels for health and education, O Tempo reported. Those questions followed fiscal-adjustment ideas floated by members of his economic team.
He also said he will keep the end of the 6×1 schedule, under which many employees work six days and rest one, Poder360 reported. Congress promulgated the constitutional amendment in a ceremony on the same Friday, 16 October.
How the Plan Compares with His Record
Flávio first opposed the work-week amendment, then voted for it remotely on Wednesday 14 October, Poder360 reported. He told TV Globo he decided to “follow the will of the majority of Brazilian workers”.
He had called the amendment an “opportunistic” attempt by Lula to win reelection before changing his position. He said the change followed what he heard from workers.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian bonds, the real or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, the interview shows a candidate promising lower costs without cutting the biggest transfers. Markets watch whether such pledges leave room for the budget targets set by the government.
If you follow US politics or trade, nothing here changes the date or the stakes of the vote on Sunday 25 October. Our Brazil election polls page lists every survey so you can see how close the race is.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (16 October, 11:49 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$185 million in total bets, and the Brazil election odds page tracks it.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.2% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22%
As of 17 October, 12:20 am ET (05:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known which ministries would go or how much the cut would save, because the interview reported by O Tempo and Poder360 gave no list or costing. Nor is it known how the wage and pension pledges would be financed.
It is also not known whether voters will weigh these pledges when they choose on 25 October. A campaign promise is not a law, and any cut would need the approval of Congress.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Flávio Bolsonaro promise on ministries?
He said he would cut at least 10 of the 39 federal ministries if elected. He made the pledge on TV Globo on Friday 16 October.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro keep minimum wage rises above inflation?
He said yes in the same interview. He also said he would not unlink pensions from the minimum wage.
Would he reverse the end of the 6×1 work week?
He said he will not. Congress promulgated the amendment on Friday 16 October.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
He is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative Liberal Party (PL) candidate. He is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Sources: O Tempo, 16 October 2026; Poder360, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief