Democrats Lead Midterm Poll by 10 Points

UNITED STATES · MIDTERMS 2026 · POLL

Published Thursday, 22 October 2026, 9:45 a.m. ET (9:45 a.m. Washington) · Source: Siena Research Institute

A big national poll shows Democrats well ahead 12 days before Americans choose a new Congress, and voters are unhappy with both parties.

Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points in the race for Congress, according to a New York Times/Siena national survey released on Wednesday 21 October. The result adds to the US midterms 2026 dossier of polls and prediction-market prices that The Rio Times tracks for readers in the United States and abroad.

The vote is on Tuesday 3 November, and our guide to the 2026 US midterm elections explains what is at stake. The poll also shows President Donald Trump’s approval at 36%, with 59% disapproving.

What the Poll Found

The Siena Research Institute surveyed a national sample of more than 3,000 voters and named every candidate when it asked about Congress. Democrats led Republicans by 10 points in that congressional contest.

In the 35 states that hold Senate races, Democrats led by 5 points. The Senate map is narrower than the national picture, because only some states vote this year.

“Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points in a Congressional toss-up when we provided the names of every candidate,” said Don Levy, the institute’s executive director.

A national lead does not decide the House on its own. All 435 seats are won district by district, and 218 make a majority.

Why Voters Are Unhappy

Trump’s job approval stood at 36% against 59% disapproval, a gap of 23 points. Voters disapproved of how he handles immigration, the war in Iran and tariffs, and most strongly of how he handles the economy.

On the cost of living, 29% approved and 69% disapproved. On gas prices, only 24% approved while 73% disapproved.

Voters were not won over by the opposition either. The institute said voters are dissatisfied with both parties, and majorities think both are focused more on the wrong things than the right ones.

Still, Democrats were more trusted on the economy, the cost of living, gas prices, health care, corruption, foreign wars and artificial intelligence. Their edge on those issues ran between 8 and 20 points.

What Prediction Markets Say

At 9:42 a.m. ET on 22 October, Polymarket priced a Democratic House at 92.5%, with about US$20.2 million traded on the question. It priced a Democratic Senate at 67.5%, with about US$7.8 million traded.

Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), priced a Democratic House at 91.4%. These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on news.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

If Democrats win the House, they would control which bills reach a vote and which officials Congress can summon for the last two years of Trump’s term. Investors and companies with US exposure watch Congress because it writes tax law and passes the budget.

Readers in Latin America and Africa have their own stake, since Congress funds foreign aid and shapes trade rules. For a view of how Latino voters are leaning, see our report on Latino voters midterms 2026.

What Is Not Known

The institute’s summary does not list the field dates or the margin of error, so we cannot say how the sample was split between likely and registered voters. Polls can also miss, and turnout among each party’s voters is the main unknown until 3 November.

The poll also cannot say how many individual House and Senate races will be close. The next hard facts will be the official results from state election offices after the polls close.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the new Times/Siena poll find?

The New York Times/Siena national survey, released on Wednesday 21 October, found Democrats ahead by 10 points in a congressional contest where every candidate was named. It also gave Democrats a five-point lead in the 35 states that hold Senate races.

What is Donald Trump’s approval rating in the poll?

In the Times/Siena survey, 36% of voters approve of the president’s job and 59% disapprove. His numbers are worse on the cost of living (29% to 69%) and on gas prices (24% to 73%).

When is the 2026 US midterm election?

Election Day is Tuesday 3 November 2026. Voters will choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives and fill 35 Senate seats.

Does a national poll lead decide who wins the House?

No. House seats are won district by district, so a national lead only shows the mood of the country, not the result in each seat.

What do prediction markets say about control of Congress?

At 9:42 a.m. ET on 22 October, Polymarket priced a Democratic House at 92.5% and a Democratic Senate at 67.5%. Kalshi priced a Democratic House at 91.4%.

Sources: Siena Research Institute, New York Times/Siena National Survey (21 October 2026); Political Wire (21 October 2026); Polymarket, House control; Polymarket, Senate control; Kalshi, House control. Market prices read on 22 October at 9:42 a.m. ET.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief