Colombian Markets Walk Tightrope Between Dollar Jitters And Record Stocks

Key Points

• Peso holds near 3,830 per dollar as traders balance Fed-cut hopes against worries over Petro’s interventionist agenda.
• COLCAP sits around record highs after a 50%-plus year, but momentum looks stretched and profit-taking is creeping in.
• Order flow, carry and expectations of a more market-friendly post-2026 landscape keep capital anchored in Colombia for now.

The Colombian peso starts Tuesday trading around 3,830–3,840 per dollar, almost exactly where the official TRM is set at 3,830.02.

On Friday more than $1.7 billion changed hands in over 2,000 transactions, lifting the reference rate sharply from 3,757.92 and locking in the current level over the long weekend.

The move came as the U.S. Dollar Index hovered just above 99 and investors positioned for an expected Federal Reserve rate cut later this week. Strategists describe a market stuck between healthy fundamentals and political noise.

Colombia still offers one of the highest real yields in the region, with policy rates at 9.25% and inflation around 5½%, while third-quarter GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter.

At the same time, traders quietly hedge against fiscal slippage and President Gustavo Petro’s activist policy mix, betting that the 2026 vote could restore a more orthodox approach.

Technical signals echo that ambivalence. On the daily chart, USD/COP remains in a clear downtrend from April, comfortably below a long-term resistance line near 4,030.

But the four-hour chart shows a fresher dollar upswing: MACD has turned positive, RSI sits in the low 60s and spot is pressing against a 3,850 ceiling. Dealers talk of a broad 3,760–3,850 range, with strong dollar demand on dips and heavy offers as levels approach 3,900.

Equities tell an even more dramatic story. The MSCI COLCAP closed near 2,113, off slightly on the day but up more than 50% in 2025 and the standout performer in Latin America.

Winners in recent sessions have included Davivienda preferred, Grupo Cibest’s ordinary and preferred shares, Terpel and construction group Conconcreto. Laggards have ranged from preferred Grupo Sura and Grupo Argos to preferred Cibest, retailer Éxito and grid operator ISA.

For now, high carry, resilient growth and disciplined monetary policy keep money flowing into Colombia, even as investors watch Washington and Bogotá for the next clue on how long this sweet spot can last.

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