Chilean Peso Stagnates as Copper Fails to Deliver Support

The Chilean peso traded sideways against the US dollar in the last 24 hours, closing at 938.97, according to TradingView data. The currency pair locked in a narrow range since early May, with no clear trend emerging.

This pattern reflects a market lacking conviction, as neither local fundamentals nor global drivers provide a decisive signal. The Central Bank of Chile has held its benchmark rate steady at 5.0%, signaling a cautious stance.

The bank’s latest projections put 2025 GDP growth between 1.75% and 2.75%, and inflation is expected to close the year at 3.8%. These figures suggest a stable macroeconomic backdrop, but not one strong enough to trigger a rally in the peso.

Market participants see little reason to reposition, given the absence of surprises in economic data or policy. Copper prices, a key support for the peso, have not shown strength in recent sessions.

The attached chart reveals that copper has failed to sustain gains, with prices trending lower or flat in recent days. This undercuts one of the peso’s traditional sources of support and helps explain the lack of upward momentum in the currency.

Traders have responded by keeping positions light and volume subdued, with no significant ETF inflows or outflows reported. Technical analysis of the USD/CLP chart confirms the stalemate.

The pair remains below its 200-period moving average, which sits near 955, and also trades under the 50- and 100-period averages. These moving averages point to continued lack of direction.

The Ichimoku cloud covers the price, signaling indecision, while Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating low volatility. The price repeatedly bounces between support at 938 and resistance near 944, reinforcing the horizontal barriers that define the current range.

Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index remain close to neutral, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The lack of strong volume spikes further confirms the absence of conviction among traders.

Forecasts from financial institutions expect the USD/CLP to remain range-bound in the short term, with no clear catalyst in sight. The real story is one of balance and hesitation. The peso finds no help from copper, and domestic fundamentals offer stability but not excitement.

Technical indicators reinforce the view that the market remains trapped in a sideways channel. Until a new catalyst emerges, the Chilean peso will likely continue to drift, with traders watching but not acting.