Chilean Businesses Turn Optimistic for the First Time in Years, but the Real Test Is Just Beginning

By Lachlan Williams · February 9, 2026 · 2 min read

Key Points

— For the first time since Chile’s Central Bank began measuring the metric, nearly half of firms expect inflation one year ahead to return to normal — aligning with the bank’s projection of reaching its 3% target by early 2026.

— Business confidence hit 52.12 points in January, its highest in 11 months, as copper smashed records above $12,000 per tonne and 13 mining projects worth $14.8 billion prepare to advance this year.

— President-elect José Antonio Kast takes office March 11 promising to slash 382 permit requirements and unlock investment, but critics warn his deregulation push risks environmental and community safeguards.

Something has shifted in Chile’s economy. The Central Bank‘s Business Perceptions Report, published February 5, shows every indicator pointing toward improvement or stability — a first for the quarterly survey, which draws on executive interviews across all sectors and regions. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chile affairs and Latin American financial news.

The headline finding is historic: close to half of firms now expect inflation to normalize within a year. Annual inflation fell to 3.5% in December, core to 3.3%, and the policy rate sits at 4.5% — the lowest since January 2022. Credit rejection rates hit record lows, though demand for new loans remains tepid.

The IMCE confidence index reinforces the shift, reaching 52.12 in January — its highest in 11 months. Mining surged 21 points as copper closed 2025 near $12,000 per tonne after a 40% annual gain, with Cochilco forecasting $4.55 per pound for 2026 — its highest projection ever. Thirteen megaprojects worth $14.8 billion aim to add nearly 500,000 tonnes of capacity.

Chilean Businesses Turn Optimistic for the First Time in Years, but the Real Test Is Just Beginning. (Photo Internet reproduction)

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Chile’s growth optimism tempered by risks

The political backdrop is inseparable from the confidence swing. Kast’s December victory with 58% sent expectations to their highest since 2018, and his incoming bi-minister of Economy and Mining, Daniel Mas, has made deregulating 382 sectoral permits his top priority. The right sees this as the unlock Chile needs after growth averaged 1.8% under Boric.

The left counters that optimism rests on commodity luck and a political sugar rush. Unemployment closed 2025 at 8%, but first-time job seekers surged 24% and informality persists at 26%. While 65% of firms plan AI investments, 85% report barriers from costs to skills gaps.

The Central Bank captured the tension precisely: optimism has increased, but doubts persist about whether it translates into action. Many firms are holding plans steady, waiting to see what early 2026 delivers — from Kast’s reforms to copper prices to U.S. tariffs that exempted the red metal but hit fruit exports.

Chilean Businesses Turn Optimistic for the First Time in Years, but the Real Test Is Just Beginning

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Chile’s growth optimism tempered by risks

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