Today’s Focus
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The Big Picture: The Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time in history on Friday, surging 1,207 points (+2.47%) as a tech rebound led by Nvidia (+5%) and Amazon earnings reversed the midweek rout. The S&P 500 gained 1.97%.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
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Brazil’s Ibovespa followed the global risk-on mood, closing at 182,950 (+0.45%), its third-highest close ever. The real held near nine-month highs at R$5.22 per dollar as the Copom’s rate-cut signal continues to attract carry flows.
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The week’s dominant domestic story was Bradesco’s Q4 results: recurring net income of R$6.5 billion (+20.6% YoY) was solid, but the bank’s cautious 2026 guidance sent BBDC4 down more than 4% and dragged on the index for two consecutive sessions.
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CEO Marcelo Noronha set 15% ROE as the new floor, well below Itaú’s 24.4%. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry trimmed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% while raising its inflation projection to 3.6%, keeping the policy backdrop mixed.
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Latin American divergence deepens: Argentina’s MERVAL plunged 9.6% in seven sessions as the INDEC crisis — the statistics chief resigned over CPI methodology — rattled confidence in Milei’s reform program. Country risk spiked to 516 bps.
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Mexico’s IPC rebounded sharply after Banxico unanimously held at 7.00%, pausing its easing cycle. Colombia’s COLCAP recovered 2.14% on Friday after its steepest weekly decline of the year. Chile’s IPSA pulled back from all-time highs as copper volatility persisted.
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Market Snapshot
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Brazil — February 7, 2026
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| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa | 182,950 | +0.45% |
| USD/BRL | 5.2174 | -0.65% wk |
| Selic Rate | 15.00% | CUTS SIGNALED |
| Brent Crude | $68.10/bbl | FLAT |
| Gold | $4,998/oz | +6.2% wk |
| Silver | $80.25/oz | +2.9% |
| Iron Ore | $100.11/t | -8.1% mo |
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Today’s Main Event
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Copom rate-cut signal meets data week
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The Copom minutes released last Monday were the week’s most consequential domestic event. After holding the Selic at 15.00% for the fifth consecutive meeting, the central bank explicitly signaled that a rate-cutting cycle is now on the horizon, citing improving current account dynamics, moderating inflation expectations, and a stronger real.
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The BRL has gained approximately 4.9% against the dollar year-to-date — the largest gain among major emerging market currencies behind the Chilean peso — reinforcing the disinflationary impulse that gives the BCB room to ease.
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BBVA Research expects the Selic to end 2026 around 11.50%, implying 350 basis points of cuts over the remainder of the year. The market is pricing the first move for the March or May meeting.
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São Paulo consumer prices rose just 0.21% month-over-month in January, down from 0.32% in December, adding to the dovish case. But the Finance Ministry’s decision to raise its 2026 inflation forecast from 3.5% to 3.6% — even while trimming GDP growth to 2.3% — suggests the path will not be linear.
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This week’s IPCA print (expected around February 12) is the critical test. A reading in line with or below expectations would cement the rate-cut timeline and likely push the Ibovespa toward its all-time high. An upside surprise would stall the rally and force a repricing of the entire easing narrative.
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Verdict
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The Copom has laid the groundwork for easing, but the IPCA print is the gatekeeper. The combination of a strong real, moderating prices, and record foreign inflows creates the conditions for a rate cut — but the BCB has been burned before by premature easing. This week’s inflation data will determine whether the March meeting is live or whether the market must wait until May.
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Bank Earnings Recap
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Bradesco disappoints, Itaú dominates
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Bradesco’s Q4 2025 results told two stories. The headline numbers were strong: recurring net income of R$6.5 billion (+20.6% YoY), full-year profit of R$24.7 billion (+26.1%), 11% loan growth, and stable NPLs at 4.1%.
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The insurance arm contributed R$5.6 billion in operational income. But the earnings call crushed sentiment — CEO Marcelo Noronha set 15% ROE as the bank’s “new floor,” a target that pales against Itaú’s 24.4% and signals that Bradesco’s turnaround still has years to run.
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BBDC4 fell more than 4% on Thursday and continued to drag on the Ibovespa through Friday’s close. The cautious 2026 guidance — including an expected tax rate of 16-21% and a CET1 ratio target around 11% — overshadowed the operational improvements.
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In contrast, B3 surged 4.5% and Itaúsa jumped 3% on Friday, demonstrating that the market is rewarding execution and punishing caution.
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The bank earnings cycle is now complete. Santander set a cautious tone; Itaú delivered a blowout; Bradesco landed in between. For the Ibovespa, where financials account for roughly half of market cap, the net read is constructive but not euphoric — the sector’s recovery is real, but the gap between best-in-class (Itaú) and the rest (Bradesco, BB) is widening.
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Verdict
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Bradesco’s numbers confirm the recovery is underway, but the 15% ROE floor tells you how far the bank still has to go. Itaú remains the clear alpha play in Brazilian banks. The sector’s contribution to the Ibovespa will depend on whether Bradesco can close the execution gap — and whether the rate-cutting cycle provides the tailwind that lifts all boats.
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Geopolitics & Oil
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U.S.–Iran talks produce “good start” but no deal
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The first round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman concluded Friday with both sides describing a “good start” but no concrete framework.
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U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi in what represented the most significant diplomatic engagement since Trump’s military strikes last summer. Iran ruled out halting uranium enrichment — the core U.S. demand — while the Trump administration told Tehran to bring “meaningful concessions” to the next round.
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Brent crude held near $68.10, largely unchanged on the week, as the diplomatic channel reduced the geopolitical premium without delivering the de-escalation that would push prices toward $60.
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For Petrobras, the range-bound oil environment is neutral — PETR4 slipped 0.97% on Friday to R$36.64 as the stock tracked broader commodity softness rather than company-specific news.
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The more significant Petrobras development was regulatory: Brazil’s oil regulator authorized the restart of exploratory drilling at the Foz do Amazonas Basin, a potentially transformative deepwater play that had been suspended earlier.
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Verdict
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The Iran talks bought time, not a deal. Oil stays range-bound until either a framework emerges (bearish for Brent) or talks collapse (bullish spike risk). For Brazil, the Foz do Amazonas authorization is the bigger long-term story — but the market won’t price it until drill results arrive.
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Commodities Update
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Iron ore slides, gold recovers, silver whipsaws
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Iron ore fell to $100.11/t, down 8.1% over the past month as China demand concerns persist despite recent stimulus measures.
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Vale (VALE3) closed at R$85.63 (-0.95%) and faces additional headwinds from new legal actions — asset freeze requests totaling over R$2 billion related to overflows at its Fábrica and Viga operational units in Minas Gerais. CSN Mineração remains similarly exposed to the iron ore downturn.
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Gold recovered strongly from the January 31 crash, trading near $4,998/oz on Friday — up 6.2% on the week and approaching the $5,000 psychological resistance. Central bank buying continues to provide structural support.
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Silver’s extreme volatility persisted: after plunging to $64 intraday on Thursday, it whipsawed back to $80.25 by Sunday (+2.9%), a swing of more than 25% in three sessions. The thin liquidity that has characterized the silver market since the January crash continues to fuel wild moves.
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Coffee futures fell to 294 USd/Lbs (-4.7%), extending losses from the 308 level earlier in the week. Brazilian arabica supply remains tight, but the broader commodity selloff has weighed on speculative positioning.
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Economic Calendar
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Week of February 9
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| Date / Time (BRT) | Event | Importance |
| Wed, Feb 11 | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (January, delayed) | HIGH |
| Thu, Feb 12 | U.S. CPI (January, delayed) | HIGH |
| Wed, Feb 12 | Brazil IPCA Inflation (January) | HIGH |
| Mon, Feb 9 | China CPI / PPI (January) | MEDIUM |
| Thu, Feb 13 | UK Q4 GDP (Preliminary) | MEDIUM |
| Ongoing | U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks (Next Round TBD) | MEDIUM |
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Technical Analysis
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Key levels
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| Instrument | Support | Current | Resistance |
| Ibovespa | 180,000 / 176,500 | 182,950 | 185,700 / 190,000 |
| USD/BRL | 5.10 / 5.00 | 5.2174 | 5.30 / 5.40 |
| Brent Crude | $64 / $60 | $68.10 | $70 / $72 |
| Gold | $4,700 / $4,500 | $4,998 | $5,050 / $5,200 |
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Latin America Markets
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February 7, 2026
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| Country | Index | Level | Change | FX (USD) |
| Brazil | Ibovespa | 182,950 | +0.45% | 5.22 |
| Mexico | IPC | ~71,700 | +2.83% | 17.27 |
| Argentina | MERVAL | 2,977,119 | +1.51% | 1,470 |
| Colombia | COLCAP | ~2,420 | +2.14% | 3,645 |
| Chile | IPSA | 5,798 | -0.36% | 856 |
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Mexico: The IPC surged 2.83% on Friday, tracking Wall Street’s tech rebound and pushing the index back toward the 72,000 level. Banxico‘s unanimous decision to hold at 7.00% — pausing its easing cycle for the first time in nearly two years — reinforced the peso’s strength at 17.27 per dollar.
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BBVA raised its year-end IPC target from 69,200 to 76,250, citing improved earnings momentum and the peso’s resilience against Trump tariff threats.
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Argentina: The MERVAL bounced 1.51% on Friday to 2,977,119, snapping its seven-session losing streak that had erased 9.6% from the all-time high of 3,296,502 reached on January 28.
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The INDEC crisis — statistics chief Marco Lavagna resigned over the government’s refusal to update the CPI base year — continues to weigh on sentiment, with country risk at 516 bps.
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The Wall Street Journal reported that the selloff “jolted confidence in Milei’s overhaul.” The index trades at 37.5x P/E versus its 28.9x three-year average.
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Colombia: COLCAP recovered 2.14% on Friday after its steepest weekly decline of the year. Grupo Nutresa rose 8.14% to all-time highs, bucking the broader trend. The earlier selloff was led by financials — Bancolombia preferred shares had dropped 5.9% midweek.
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Chile: The IPSA slipped 0.36% to 5,798 as the index consolidated after touching record highs earlier in the week. The peso continued its copper-fueled rally to 856 per dollar — its strongest level since early 2024. Inflation falling below the BCCh’s 3% target for the first time since 2021 has opened the door for further rate cuts.
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Key Themes This Week
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Data Deluge
\nDelayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls (Wed) and CPI (Thu) land in the same week as Brazil’s IPCA. The combination could reset rate expectations across both the Fed and BCB — and drive the next leg in USD/BRL.
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Selic Countdown
\nCopom’s rate-cut signal has the market pricing the first move for March/May. IPCA is the gatekeeper. BBVA sees Selic at 11.50% by year-end — 350 bps of cuts to come.
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Argentina Risk
\nINDEC crisis + 37.5x P/E + 516 bps country risk = fragile setup. The MERVAL bounced Friday but remains 9.7% below its January peak. IMF review in progress adds another layer of scrutiny.
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Dow 50K
\nThe Dow’s first close above 50,000 caps a volatile week. Tech rebounded sharply (Nvidia +5%) after the midweek AI selloff. Risk-on momentum should support EM flows into Monday.
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Bottom Line
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This week is all about data. The delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls (Wednesday, consensus ~70,000) and CPI (Thursday) arrive alongside Brazil’s IPCA — creating a three-day window that could reset rate expectations across the hemisphere.
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The Copom has laid the groundwork for easing, but the market needs the inflation data to confirm the timeline. A benign IPCA print would likely push the Ibovespa toward its all-time high of 185,700 and the real toward 5.10; an upside surprise would stall the rally and force a repricing of the entire rate-cut narrative.
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Regional context: Brazil’s resilience is increasingly exceptional. The Ibovespa is up ~13% year-to-date with record foreign inflows, while Argentina’s MERVAL has given back all of January’s gains in seven sessions.
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Mexico is benefiting from Banxico’s hawkish pause and peso strength. Chile’s copper-driven rally faces overbought exhaustion. Colombia is recovering from its worst week of the year. The divergence within Latin America has never been wider — and Brazil is on the right side of it.
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Key risks: IPCA upside surprise (delays rate cuts, pressures BRL); weak U.S. payrolls reinforcing recession fears (risk-off for EM); hot U.S. CPI (Fed repricing, dollar strength); Vale legal overhang (asset freezes >R$2B); Argentina INDEC contagion to broader EM sentiment; silver volatility spillover; Iran talks collapse (oil spike).
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Previously: Brazil Financial Morning Call — February 5, 2026. Check back Tuesday for continued coverage.
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© 2026 RT Staff Reporters | Brazil Financial Morning Call
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate