Brazil’s Population Hits 213.4 Million but Peak Looms

Brazil’s official statistics agency IBGE reports the country has 213.4 million people in mid-2025. São Paulo dominates with 46.1 million residents, more than one-fifth of the national total.

Roraima, with only 738,772 inhabitants, grew the fastest this year, up 3.07% due mainly to migration from neighboring Venezuela. The country added about 837,000 people since 2024, a growth rate of 0.39%.

Most states grew slowly, but Santa Catarina (+1.60%) and Mato Grosso (+1.49%) stood out with higher increases. Rio de Janeiro and Alagoas barely grew at all, each with just 0.02%.

These shifts reflect how internal migration and local economies now shape growth more than raw birth numbers. That matters, because births are falling. Brazil registered 2.52 million in 2023, down for the fifth year in a row.

Lower fertility, together with migration trends, is setting the stage for a turning point. IBGE projects Brazil’s population will peak at 220.4 million in 2041, then begin to shrink. By 2070, it could fall back to 199.2 million.

Behind the numbers lies a major shift with direct consequences. Population counts determine how billions of federal dollars are shared among states and municipalities.

They also guide investment in schools, hospitals, transport, and business expansion. For companies, the figures point to where workers and consumers will be — and where they will not.

The deeper story is that Brazil is still growing, but unevenly. Wealthier southern states such as Santa Catarina attract migrants from elsewhere. Roraima’s growth comes from migration pressures at its northern border.

Meanwhile, traditional economic centers like Rio de Janeiro barely expand. The country is entering a period where some regions gain people and resources, while others stagnate.

IBGE’s new figures capture this transition. Brazil has not yet stopped growing, but the countdown to decline has already begun.

Brazil Population by State (2024 vs 2025)