WHAT HAPPENS NEXT · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday 25 October.
- —Why it matters The security PEC would write a national security system into the Constitution and toughen prison rules for faction and militia leaders.
- —Why now The Senate’s justice committee closed its review on Wednesday 14 October, so the text now goes to the full Senate.
- —What happened The committee declared three pending separate votes moot and approved drafting fixes, ending a stage that began on 21 August.
- —The numbers The amendment needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two floor rounds, then promulgation by Congress without a presidential signature.
- —What it means for you Brazil would get a bigger federal role against factions such as the PCC and Comando Vermelho, which Washington lists as terrorist groups.
- —Still open Whether senators approve a special calendar for a vote this week, and whether the Senate’s changes send the text back to deputies.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 14.5% (US$182 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 14%
As of 14 October, 3:20 pm ET (20:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The security PEC, Brazil’s flagship constitutional amendment on crime, heads to the Senate floor after clearing committee on Wednesday 14 October. Two floor votes in Brasília, and possibly a return to the Chamber of Deputies, stand between it and the Constitution.
For US readers, the stakes reach beyond Brazil, because the amendment targets factions that Washington designated as terrorist organisations in June. How fast the Senate moves will also shape the 25 October runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) sent the proposal and wants it passed before the runoff. His rival is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL), which opposes Lula’s government.
How the Security PEC Got Here
The Senate formally received the text from the Chamber of Deputies on Tuesday 10 March, the Senate’s legislative record shows. It then waited more than five months before reaching the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) on Friday 21 August.
The committee approved the report of Senator Rogério Carvalho, a PT member from Sergipe, on Wednesday 2 September. Three requests for separate votes on amendments were left pending that day.
On Wednesday, chair Otto Alencar of the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD) declared the requests moot because their authors were absent. All three had been filed by Carlos Portinho, the PL’s leader in the Senate.
Jovem Pan reported that no senator from the Vanguarda bloc of the PL, Novo and Avante had registered attendance. The committee also approved drafting adjustments proposed by Carvalho, and the file then went to the Senate’s legislative secretariat.
The Two Votes on the Senate Floor
As a constitutional amendment, the text needs at least 49 of the 81 senators in each of two rounds. Senate rules require five sessions of debate before the first round and three more before the second.
The rules also demand at least five working days between the two rounds. Under that normal sequence, a final vote before the 25 October runoff would be hard to reach.
Senators can shorten the timetable by approving a request for a special calendar. G1 reported that Senator Eduardo Braga, leader of the centrist MDB, is collecting signatures for one.
With one, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre of the centre-right União Brasil could call a vote as soon as Thursday 15 October. Alencar told the Senate news agency that Alcolumbre wants to start right after the vote on ending the six-day working week.
That separate amendment was on the Senate floor on Wednesday, so the security PEC would follow it in the queue. Alencar said party leaders had backed a vote and that approval before the runoff was possible.
Does the Text Go Back to the Chamber?
Brazil’s Constitution requires each house to approve a constitutional amendment in two rounds, by three-fifths of its members. Correio Braziliense notes that if senators change the substance of the Chamber’s version, the text must return to the deputies.
Here the reports diverge, which makes the next step hard to call. G1 and Gazeta do Povo say the rapporteur kept the Chamber’s text, while the Senate news agency says he altered it.
The committee’s official record lists four senators’ amendments approved in full and two in part, plus drafting amendments. The Senate news agency adds that Carvalho dropped a clause steering betting revenue to security funds.
Agência Brasil, the public news agency, applies the same rule to this week’s working-hours amendment: only changes of merit return. If Senate leaders treat the security changes as drafting, the amendment could go straight to promulgation.
Promulgation and the Promised Ministry
Once both houses agree, the governing boards of the Chamber and the Senate promulgate the amendment without a presidential signature. Lula therefore has no veto over the final wording, but he also cannot speed up that last step himself.
If the Senate rejects the text instead, the Constitution bars the same proposal from returning in the same legislative session. That session runs until December, so a defeat would push any new attempt into 2027.
Lula has said he will create a Ministry of Public Security once the amendment is approved, Gazeta do Povo reported. Alencar told G1 that Lula would recreate the ministry by next week.
The amendment sets up cooperation between federal, state and city forces, including joint task forces, the Senate news agency reported. Opposition politicians and governors critical of Lula say this invades powers the Constitution gives the states, Gazeta do Povo noted.
What It Means for You
For US travellers and companies, state police will still run most street policing in Brazil for now. The amendment targets factions such as the PCC and Comando Vermelho, which the US listed as terrorist organisations on Friday 5 June.
A Senate win before 25 October would hand Lula a security achievement in the campaign’s final days. A delay would let Flávio Bolsonaro’s camp argue that Lula cannot deliver on crime, which Gazeta do Povo calls voters’ top concern.
For firms, the text allows confiscation of assets linked to factions and militias and makes companies involved liable. Compliance teams with Brazilian partners should watch the final wording of those clauses.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether enough senators will back a special calendar this week. Nor is it clear whether the PL-led bloc will turn up on the floor to try to change the text.
The status of the committee’s amendments, drafting or substance, has not been settled in public. That question decides whether the Chamber of Deputies must vote again before promulgation.
No date has been fixed for the promised ministry, and its budget and structure have not been published. Its relationship with the existing Justice Ministry is also unclear.
For background, read Brazil’s Public Security Amendment Explained, Who Dominates Brazil, Elites and Regions Explained and Brazil and Its Neighbours in South America. For the race, see Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio on 25 October and our Brasília city page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the security PEC?
It is PEC 18/2025, a constitutional amendment proposed by Lula’s government to reorganise how Brazil fights crime. It writes a unified public security system into the Constitution and toughens penalties for faction and militia leaders.
What happens next in the Senate?
The full Senate must approve the text in two rounds, with at least 49 of 81 votes each time. Without a special calendar, the rules require several debate sessions and five working days between rounds.
Can it pass before the 25 October runoff?
Committee chair Otto Alencar said approval before the runoff is possible if party leaders agree. That depends on senators approving a special calendar to shorten the debate rules.
Does Lula have to sign it?
No, constitutional amendments are promulgated by the governing boards of the Chamber and the Senate. The president has no veto over them.
Will the Chamber of Deputies vote again?
Only if the Senate’s changes are judged to alter the substance of the Chamber’s text. Reports differ on whether the committee’s amendments go that far.
Sources: Agência Senado, 14 October; Senate legislative record, PEC 18/2025; Constitution, article 60; G1; Gazeta do Povo; Correio Braziliense; Jovem Pan; Agência Brasil; US Federal Register, 5 June.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief