Brazil’s Real Exchange Rate May Be Calming, Bradesco Says

Brazil · Markets

After more than a decade of a weakening currency, one of Brazil’s biggest banks sees a tentative sign that the long slide in the real may be levelling off.

Brazil’s real may be entering a phase of normalization after an extended period of depreciation, according to a study by Banco Bradesco, one of the country’s largest lenders. The analysis frames the currency’s recent behavior against its own long history rather than short-term swings, and concludes that by most measures the real is no longer obviously cheap, a shift that matters for investors, importers and policymakers alike.

What normalization of the real exchange rate means

Bradesco anchored its conclusion in averages stretching back decades. The real exchange rate averaged R$/$4.08 between 1980 and 2026, and R$/$4.42 over the period since Brazil adopted a floating regime in 1999.

The 10-year moving average has reached R$/$4.98, close to where the real currently trades, around R$/$5.08 to the dollar. Measured against those longer benchmarks, the currency looks roughly fairly valued rather than excessively weak.

The bank noted that only the five-year moving average, which is dominated by the unusual post-pandemic years, points to the real being overvalued, a sign of how much the reference period shapes the verdict.

Long cycles that last years

A central finding is just how persistent Brazil’s currency cycles are. Analyzing deviations from the long-run trend, Bradesco identified swings that can run for the better part of a decade.

Between June 2005 and November 2014, for example, the real stayed below trend for nearly 10 years. A second long depreciation began at the end of 2014, amid a fiscal and economic crisis, and ran for about 11 and a half years.

That persistence implies the currency does not snap back quickly; instead, it tends to grind through extended phases, which is part of why the bank treats a possible turn toward normalization as significant rather than fleeting.

Why it matters now

The timing is notable. Brazil’s central bank has held interest rates high to fight inflation, a stance that tends to support the currency by drawing in yield-seeking capital, and the country has been running large trade surpluses that bolster its external position.

At the same time, trade tensions with the United States and an approaching election cycle inject uncertainty that could disrupt any calm. For foreign investors, a more stable real would reduce a key risk in holding Brazilian assets; for the broader economy, it would ease the imported-inflation pressure that a falling currency brings.

Bradesco’s analysis stops short of forecasting a sustained rally, framing the moment instead as a possible inflection after years of weakness, with the outcome dependent on fiscal discipline and the global backdrop.