
Key Facts
—What. Brazil confirmed Newcastle disease on a commercial turkey farm with about 6,000 birds in Nova Itaberaba, western Santa Catarina.
—When. Laboratory confirmation came on Sunday 18 October 2026, after samples were taken on 21 September.
—Trade at stake. China took about 10% of Brazil’s poultry exports from January to September, roughly 420,000 tonnes.
—Why it matters. Brazil is the world’s largest chicken exporter, so a China halt could redirect supply toward other buyers, including rivals of US exporters.
—Still unknown. Whether China will bar all of Brazil, only Santa Catarina or a smaller zone around the farm.
—Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.4% · Lula 23.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 19 October, 11:00 pm ET (04:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil confirmed Newcastle disease on a turkey farm in Santa Catarina on Sunday 18 October, which under a deal with Beijing should halt chicken shipments to China. Exame reported that the suspension is not yet in force and must follow formal notice from the Agriculture Ministry.
China took about 10% of Brazil’s poultry exports in the first nine months of 2026, roughly 420,000 tonnes, according to Exame. Brazil is the world’s largest chicken exporter, so the decision matters for US producers who compete with it.
What Was Found
The disease was confirmed at a commercial turkey farm with about 6,000 birds in Nova Itaberaba, in western Santa Catarina. Newcastle disease is a contagious viral illness of birds.
Samples were collected on 21 September, and initial laboratory analysis followed on 14 October, according to Brazilian reports. Industry groups say the birds showed no clinical signs.
The Response
The farm was placed under quarantine, bird movements were halted, and culling, cleaning and disinfection are planned. The Agriculture Ministry has put 133 establishments in four municipalities under monitoring: Nova Itaberaba, Águas Frias, Coronel Freitas and Nova Erechim.
The federal government plans a decree declaring a sanitary emergency in those four municipalities, Exame reported. Agriculture Minister André de Paula said, in translation: “It is important to highlight that consuming this meat does not pose risks to people.”
Why China Matters
Under the sanitary arrangement with China, Brazil is expected to stop shipments after a confirmed case so that Beijing can decide how far a ban should reach. Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), said China may apply the restriction nationally, to one state or to a smaller region.
A common standard for restrictions is a zone of about 10 kilometres around an outbreak. Santa Catarina supplied about 23% of Brazil’s chicken exports through September, according to trade reports, so a state-wide measure would be larger than a local one.

A Precedent From 2024
In July 2024 Brazil confirmed Newcastle disease at a commercial farm in Anta Gorda, Rio Grande do Sul. About 44 destinations imposed restrictions at the time, according to Exame.
This case differs because it involves turkeys rather than chickens, and the birds showed no symptoms. Whether that softens the response from importers will become clear in the coming days.
What It Means for US Readers
A prolonged halt could push Brazilian chicken toward other buyers and weigh on world prices, which US exporters would feel. Traders will also watch whether other markets follow China.
For travellers and consumers, officials say inspected poultry in Brazil remains safe to eat. See our earlier reports on Brazil beef exports to the US and sorghum shipments, and our Brazil page.
What Is Not Known
China had not announced the scope of any restriction in the reports we reviewed, and no date for a resumption of shipments has been given. Reports also differed on whether the suspension had already been formally notified, and the hour it takes effect has not been stated.
Authorities have not said whether further cases will be found among the 133 monitored establishments. The monitoring period reported by Exame is 42 days.
Related: our understanding the brazil political system a guide.
Sources
Exame · g1 · Globo Rural · CNN Brasil · Compre Rural
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Newcastle disease?
Newcastle disease is a highly contagious viral illness of birds, including chickens and turkeys. Authorities and industry groups say it is an animal-health issue and that inspected poultry meat is safe to eat.
How much chicken does Brazil sell to China?
China took about 10% of Brazil’s poultry exports from January to September 2026, roughly 420,000 tonnes. Brazil is the world’s largest chicken exporter.
Has Brazil already stopped shipments to China?
Exame reported that the suspension must follow formal notice from the Agriculture Ministry and was not yet in force. Under the arrangement with Beijing, shipments are expected to stop so China can decide the scope of the restriction.
Is Brazilian chicken safe to eat?
The Agriculture Ministry says consuming the meat does not pose risks to people. The affected farm raised turkeys, and the birds showed no clinical signs.