Analysis: Brazil Holds Its Breath Before Elections Testing Power of Bolsonarism

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A crossroads lies ahead of Brazil, now governed by President Donald Trump’s most loyal trustee. The result of the 2020 elections in the United States will point the direction of the transformation of the Bolsonaro Government in the two years and two months it has left in the presidency.

Trump or Joe Biden will model Jair Bolsonaro‘s steps to seek reelection in 2022. The question, so far, is if the winds of change that have struck Latin America will inspire Brazil with Biden, or if the Bolsonaro government will feel free to further radicalize if Trump beats his democratic rival in the polls on November 3rd.

The election of Luis Arce in Bolivia and the approval of a referendum under popular pressure in Chile last month spurred those who see a shift in the pendulum from the right – and far-right – to the more moderate or progressive lines. Should Trump be re-elected, the right gains traction to strengthen itself and, in this case, the hard hand of President Jair Bolsonaro will become heavier with the applause of the Trump model. In other words, persecution of the left-wing, of the press, and of the groups pointed out as ‘enemies’ of Bolsonarism’s conservative agenda.

However, Professor Javier Corrales of Amherst College in Massachusetts believes that even if Trump is out of the White House, there will be Trumpism in the opposition, “much more powerful,” and it will continue to fuel Bolsonarism in Brazil. “Whether Trump wins or loses, Bolsonaro’s heavy hand will be the same,” says Corrales.

“The President of Brazil will use what happens in the United States to renew himself, but not to switch to a democratic liberalism,” he says, in reference to the brakes and counterweights of democracy that he claims are constantly neglected by Bolsonaro.

However, the election in the United States finds the President of Brazil under scrutiny in municipal elections, where candidates anointed with his support are not taking off in the polls. In São Paulo, the President’s negative assessment reaches 52 percent, according to the IBOPE institute.

Candidate Celso Russomano (Republicans), who shares the leadership in the polls with Mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB-Brazilian Social Democratic Party), was the only one to lose points in São Paulo’s electoral race, soon after establishing himself as sponsored by the President. By way of comparison, in the 2018 presidential election, Bolsonaro had over 60 percent of the vote in the capital, against 39.6 percent for Fernando Haddad, which shows a deterioration in the largest electoral college in the country.

For Corrales, this rejection of Bolsonaro resembles that of Trump in urban areas of the United States, in yet another instance the two presidents share. Both are contained by center movements in both countries, unlike other leaders such as Hugo Chávez or Alberto Fujimori in South America or Silvio Berlusconi in Italy and Viktor Orban in Hungary.

They all achieved virtually absolute popularity and extended their power. They all achieved an almost absolute popularity and extended themselves in power. Asked about Bolsonaro’s role in the municipal elections, the Amherst College professor reflects: “It may be that the far-right has reached its peak”. The same goes for Trump. “It’s not customary to struggle for reelection this much,” he adds.

For now, Trump’s and Bolsonaro’s similarities are also mirrored in the spectacularization of their actions and corrosive provocations to opponents, in the anti-vaccination movements, pro-weapons liberation, and in the adoption of slogans such as “law and order” to deal with popular social demands.

The erratic management of Covid-19 is also part of this, with Brazil and the United States among the countries with the highest number of deaths in the world. Now it is certain that Bolsonaro will also challenge results when he runs for re-election in 2022, as Trump is doing right now.

The crucial difference between the two presidents today lies in the management of the economy. While the U.S. is doing well, Brazil is doing poorly with no economic plan to close its accounts next year. Living off Trump’s nods for more trade deals, Bolsonaro still lacks a tangible yield on so much political investment, other than among its most loyal voters.

“If I were in the United States I would support Trump the same way I support Bolsonaro in Brazil,” Advânia dos Santos told reporter Aiuri Rebello. Advânia, who wore a T-shirt with Trump next to Bolsonaro, lives in a Bolsonarist camp in São Paulo. A potential defeat of the republican president will force Bolsonaro to secure the morale of his troops who find in the two leaders the path to avert socialism in Brazil. However, if victorious, he will strengthen his anti-communist platform, both inside and outside the country.

In any case, the outcome of the U.S. election will ultimately force the government to take the reins of economic policy and dance according to the tune coming from North America. From defining the budget for next year to the tone used for domestic issues, such as the Amazon, or external issues, such as Venezuela, all will be influenced. Some decibels higher or lower, depending on the next president.

Professor Felipe Loureiro, coordinator of the international relations course at the University of São Paulo, says that with Joe Biden as President, relations between Brazil and the United States will cool down in the short term, but in the long term, there will be pragmatism to progress through trade routes to counter the Chinese advance in Latin America. In his opinion, issues such as the Amazon will be marginal for Biden at first, who will need to focus on the pandemic and China. “We are not a priority. China and India are,” says Loureiro.

In the case of Venezuela, the Democrat should resume ex-president Barack Obama’s foreign policy, with less virulence in the approach and greater dialogue. “The greatest example of this foreign policy was Obama’s approach to the Cuban government. It won’t be a policy of confrontation as much as a retreat from the government of Juan Guaidó, and he would work toward engagement in an attempt to change the regime,” says the USP professor.

However, for Bolsonaro, Venezuela continues to play a key role in the construction of a communist enemy that encourages his supporters, the professor says. The Brazilian President was a great ally in Trump’s strategy of setting the stage for the attacks on Nicolás Maduro to earn dividends with Latin American voters residing in the United States.

It was during a four-hour visit to Boa Vista, Roraima, on September 18th that Trump’s Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, delivered a virulent speech against Nicolás Maduro, calling him a “drug dealer”. With Trump, Bolsonaro continues to have an ally – or mentor – in his role as savior of the nation from dangerous communism. Between denialist theories and media management there and here, Brazil is holding its breath for the next chapters to be defined this week by U.S. voters.

Source: El País