RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro yesterday reiterated, in a conversation with people close to him, that he remains confident in a victory of his ally Donald Trump in the American election.
The Republican, at a disadvantage in opinion polls, runs against Democrat Joe Biden at the polls on Tuesday. The vote will be closed Wednesday morning due to different time zones in the U.S. The most complex counting, with mail-in votes, may continue into the next few days.
Bolsonaro met yesterday morning with Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo and with strategic aides on international affairs. The President had been holding private conversations on the subject since Monday, November 2nd, and was being advised and briefed on the U.S. election battle.
He was alerted by the Foreign Ministry on the trends pointed out by opinion polls, which placed Biden ahead of Trump with an eight percentage points margin (52% to 44%). However, the statistics did not convince the Brazilian leader – a long-time critic of polls – who favors the Republican.
In addition to personal skepticism over the reliability of the electoral sampling, Bolsonaro reminded those involved that in 2016 the main polls placed Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump. The outcome of the elections, however, was quite different.
‘Loyalty’
Bolsonaro also told his aides that, as much as open statements of support might be a merely symbolic gesture, it is important for Brazil’s interests (both in diplomacy and economics) to express “loyalty” to Trump.
If the Republican beats Biden, the Planalto Palace believes relations between the two governments would grow more solid, particularly in the shaping of new trade agreements and also on the issue of American support for Brazil’s accession to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), one of Bolsonaro’s stated goals.
Another priority issue for Bolsonaro is Brazilian agribusiness. The executive fears that a Biden victory could cripple the export sector.
The democrat has already threatened Brazil with economic sanctions because of deforestation and forest fires. “Stop destroying the forest. And if you don’t stop, you will face significant economic consequences,” Biden said during the first U.S. presidential debate on September 30th.
On the other hand, if Trump is defeated, the Brazilian government intends to establish a “pragmatic” dialogue with the democrats, using the argument that Brazil plays the role of the United States’ main ally within the South American geopolitical context. According to Bolsonarist aides, the plan is to focus “on the whole” and “not on parts”.
Centrão prefers to be neutral
The government’s base in Congress, the Centrão bloc prefers to pursue a neutral stance. However, legislators say they believe that a Biden victory would force the government to improve environmental management and dialogue with the international community.
Senator Nelsinho Trad, president of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the government will need to communicate better, with clear scientific indicators, to address concerns over the environment. The assessment is shared by Senator Esperidião Amin. According to him, one needs to shape oneself to the counterpart, with no subordination.
“Our approach on how to address the Amazon needs to change. I advocate the use of sustainability indicators to monitor the progress of environmental management, such as patch burning, water waste, planting areas, oxygen generation,” he said.
The Chamber’s Secretary of International Relations, Deputy Alex Manente, considers that the Minister of the Environment, Ricardo Salles, current stance will not be well received by Biden and Bolsonarists in Congress will also be forced to adjust to less polarized global politics.
Source: UOL