Brazil elections 2022: Lula da Silva inherits 23% of Bolsonaro’s voters in 2018 -PoderData, July 3-5

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – PoderData poll conducted from July 3 to 5 shows that 23% of President Jair Bolsonaro’s (Liberal Party – PL) voters in the second round of the 2018 presidential election would vote in October for former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT). In the June 5-7 round, it was 13%.

The current Brazilian president keeps 61% of his voters from that contest and absorbs 4% of the votes that went to Fernando Haddad (PT). Lula da Silva also absorbs more of Haddad’s votes. Today, 85% of the PT candidate’s voters claim to vote for Da Silva.

Among the other pre-candidates, Ciro Gomes (PDT), Simone Tebet (MDB), and André Janones (Avante) add up to 8% of the Bolsonarist preferences in the last election. These same names also accounted for 8% of the Petitioner preferences in that election. The other names did not have enough mentions to score.

Among those who voted blank or annulled their vote in 2018, Lula has 42% of voting intentions for 2022. A month ago, it was 41%. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has 26% in this stratum. It was 29% at the beginning of June.

To arrive at this result, PoderData cross-referenced the data from the following questions: “If the election were today, which of the candidates I’m going to talk about in alphabetical order would you vote for?” and “Who did you vote for president in the second round of the election in 2018?”

FIRST ROUND OF VOTING

Lula da Silva has 44% of voting intentions against 36% for Bolsonaro. A fortnight ago, the percentages were 44% and 34%, respectively. The current president has moved two percentage points up – within the poll’s margin of error (2 p.p.).

The other pre-candidates total 11% of voting intentions. Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 5%; André Janones (Avante) and Simone Tebet (MDB) have 3% each. Luiz Felipe d’Avila (Novo), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Eymael (DC), Sofia Manzano (PCB), and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) did not have enough mentions to score points.

With information from Poder360