Brazil elections 2022: Lula da Silva inherits 18% of the votes that elected Bolsonaro in 2018

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) is the preferred choice for the first round of the 2022 elections of 18% of voters who voted for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the second round of the 2018 presidential race, shows a PoderData survey conducted from May 8 to 10.

In this specific clipping, 61% say they intend to repeat the vote given to Bolsonaro in the dispute against Fernando Haddad (PT) 4 years ago. This rate remained stable since the April 10-12 round, when the current Chief Executive was supplied with 15 percentage points of intentions after former Minister Sergio Moro (União Brasil) dropped out of the candidacy for the Planalto at the end of March.

Ciro Gomes (PDT) and João Doria (PSDB), both with 4%, and Simone Tebet (MDB) and André Janones (Avante), with 2% each, add up to 11% of the intentions to transfer the Bolsonaro vote in 2018. The pre-candidates are tied in the general margin of error of the survey, two percentage points higher or lower.

Among those who annulled or voted blank in 2018, the PT pre-candidate has 34% of the preferences for the 1st round of 2022. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has 14% in this stratum. Another 5% would again annul their vote.

To get to this result, PoderData crossed the data from the following questions: “If the election were today, which of the candidates I will mention in alphabetical order would you vote for?” and “Who did you vote for president in the second round of the election in 2018?”

PoderData conducted the survey, and the data were collected from May 8 to 10, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 288 cities in the 27 states of the Federation. The margin of error is two percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.

To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education, and geographical location, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees that faithfully represent the entire population are found.

EVALUATION OF THE GOVERNMENT

Bolsonaro has 80% of the voting preferences in the segment of voters who approve of his government. Among those who disapprove of his mandate, 64% say they will vote for Lula da Silva in October.

The Brazilian presidential candidate also has almost half of the votes (45%) of those who could not evaluate the current federal administration. In this segment, Bolsonaro has 15% of the intentions.

FIRST ROUND

Lula da Silva (PT) has 42% of voting intentions in the first round. Bolsonaro, 35%. The distance between them is seven percentage points. In the rounds from April 24 to 26 and April 10 to 12, this difference remained at five p.p.

Former governor of Ceará Ciro Gomes (PDT) comes next, with 5% of intentions. He is technically tied with João Doria (PSDB), who has 4%; André Janones (Avante), with 3%; and Simone Tebet (MDB), 2%. The margin of error is two percentage points higher or lower.

Eymael (DC), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Luiz Felipe D’Ávila (Novo), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) did not have enough mentions to reach 1%.

SECOND ROUND

PoderData tested a possible second round between Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro. The candidate comes out ahead with 49% of voting intentions, against 38% of the current president. Read the full report at Poder360.

With information from Poder360