Brazil elections 2022: High turnout among the elderly and low turnout among young people threaten Bolsonaro

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A record 2 million young voters cast ballots this year, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announced Thursday (5), will help former President, lefist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in this year’s elections.

The 16-24 age group is the one where Lula da Silva had the biggest lead in the last PoderData poll: 19 points more than President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Newcomers with the right to vote (16 and 17 years old) tend to go to the polls more often than the average. While the older group, where Bolsonaro does better, is the one that abstains most.

The only age group that gives Bolsonaro a numerical advantage in the polls is those over 60. The president receives 35% of the electoral votes compared to 31% for Lula (a tie at the margin of error).

A portion of them are no longer required to vote (those over 70). Septuagenarians are therefore often absent on election day: the abstention rate for this group (8% of the electorate in 2018) was a very high 62.6% in 2018.

Among the entire 60+ age group, the abstention rate was 36.3%, the highest of any age group.

Abstention in the youth group, where Lula da Silva now has the largest lead, was 19.4% in 2018.

The TSE has not yet completed its voter count, but with this year’s record registration, the 16-24 age group will see a boost in voter registration.

Abstention from voting could turn an apparent advantage among older voters into a disadvantage in the overall election.

More seniors than young people were registered voters in the 2018 election (27.7 million versus 22 million). Only seniors accounted for a smaller share of voter turnout (17.6 million) than those aged 24 and younger (17.9 million).

The 45-59 age group is Lula da Silva’s biggest asset at the moment. They carry a large weight in the electorate (in 2020, they represented 27% of voters) and historically have the lowest abstention rate. In 2018, only 13.2% did not go to the ballot box. Among this group, Lula is 12 percentage points ahead of Bolsonaro.

With information from Poder360

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