Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro’s repeat vote in 2022 grows

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – PoderData poll conducted from June 5 to 7 shows that 74% of President Jair Bolsonaro’s (Liberal Party – PL) voters in the second round of the 2018 presidential election would repeat their vote in 2022. In the May 8-10 round, it was 61%.

Among the other pre-candidates, the one who receives more votes than Bolsonaro in the dispute against Fernando Haddad (Workers’ Party – PT) is former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who has 13% in this specific cut-off.

Together, Ciro Gomes (PDT), Simone Tebet (MDB), and José Maria Eymael (DC) inherit 7% of Bolsonaro’s preferences in the last election.

Among those who annulled or voted blank in 2018, the PT pre-candidate has 41% of preferences for the first round of 2022. A month ago, he was 34%. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has 29% in this stratum – up from 14% in early May.

There was also an increase in the segment that said they intend to cancel their vote again: they were 5%. Now they are 26%.

To arrive at this result, PoderData crossed the data from the following questions: “If the election were held today, which of the candidates I will mention in alphabetical order would you vote for?” and “Who did you vote for president in the second round of the election in 2018?”

The survey was conducted by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group.

FIRST TURN

The scenario remains stable compared to 15 days ago. Lula maintained 43% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro scored the same 35%. The distance between the two is eight percentage points.

After João Doria (PSDB) gave up his candidacy for the Palácio do Planalto on May 23, the only representative of the so-called third way is now Senator Simone Tebet. She had ample media exposure in the last 15 days, but the effect was null: Tebet had 2% in the previous PowerData study. Now she has 1%.

Ciro Gomes has increased one point to 6%, remaining close to the 5% level of previous polls. André Janones (Avante) scored 2%.

Only two other candidates scored: Eymael and Luciano Bivar (União Brasil). Leonardo Péricles (UP), Luiz Felipe d’Avila (Novo), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Vera Lúcia did not get enough mentions to reach 1%.

There are still 5% who say they intend to vote blank or null – the same percentage that says they are undecided.

SECOND ROUND

In a possible second round of voting, Lula would have 50% of the voting intentions against 40% of the current Chief Executive, a distance of 10 points. The two candidates oscillate within the margin of error (2 p.p.) in the last three months.

However, the medium-term trend indicates convergence between the two: in the survey conducted on February 13-15, the PT’s candidate would defeat Bolsonaro with a 15-point advantage (50% vs. 35%).

The former president has already been 25 percentage points ahead of Bolsonaro in the round carried out in late August and early September 2021. The smallest difference between the two was nine percentage points, recorded on April 10-12 and April 24-26, 2022.

The survey also tested a possible confrontation between Bolsonaro and PDT’s pre-candidate, Ciro Gomes. The former is technically tied with the incumbent: 43% against 40% for the current president. Since the last time the question was asked to respondents, on May 8-10, Ciro has moved one point up within the poll’s margin of error.

In a confrontation between Ciro Gomes and Lula, the pediatrician has 23% of voting intentions against 49% for the former president. The difference is 26 points, the same as a month ago.

With information from Poder360