Bolivia’s August Election Proceeds Amid Deep Political Rift and Economic Uncertainty

Bolivia will hold its general election on August 17, 2025, as confirmed by official government sources. The country faces this vote in the shadow of profound political and economic instability.

President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, once allies, now lead rival factions of the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS). Their power struggle has split the party and heightened tensions across the nation.

The 2025 election follows the violence and turmoil of 2019, when disputed results led to over 35 deaths and forced a rerun. Since then, Bolivia has not fully recovered its political stability. Morales, constitutionally barred from running, has still announced his candidacy.

The prosecutor’s office issued an arrest warrant for Morales in October 2024 on serious criminal charges, leading to clashes between his supporters and police. Despite these legal obstacles, Morales remains a powerful player.

Arce, meanwhile, governs a country grappling with shortages of hard currency and fuel, high inflation, and declining natural gas production. These economic pressures have led to widespread public anger and frequent protests.

The government’s ability to respond remains limited by ongoing political infighting and a lack of consensus within the legislature. The opposition has formed a Unity Bloc to challenge MAS, nominating figures like Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge Quiroga.

Other candidates, including those from conservative and indigenous backgrounds, have also entered the race. The election will fill the presidency, vice presidency, 130 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and 36 seats in the Chamber of Senators.

Judicial Independence and Electoral Integrity

Judicial independence remains a concern. Recent reports highlight flawed judicial election processes, politicization, and a lack of transparency. The Constitutional Tribunal has extended its own mandate, along with those of other top judges, beyond their constitutional terms.

This move raises serious questions about impartiality and legal certainty. Despite ongoing legal challenges related to gender parity and indigenous participation, authorities insist the election will proceed as scheduled.

Any court decisions will only affect future elections. The business community watches closely, as the next administration will inherit not only a divided political landscape but also an economy at risk of further decline.

The outcome will shape Bolivia’s direction and its approach to key trading partners, especially as reliance on Russia and China grows.

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