Banxico Corrects Economy Ministry: Mexican FDI Fell 7.9% in H1 2026

Mexico · ECONOMY

The Banxico FDI correction flipped the government’s growth story into a contraction by raising the 2025 comparison base, leaving the USMCA review, the tariff crossfire and the exposure of Spanish banks and Chinese manufacturers at the centre of Mexico’s investment outlook.

MEXICO CITY, 26 August 2026 — The Bank of Mexico has publicly corrected the Economy Ministry over its foreign direct investment figures, reporting a 7.9 per cent fall in the first half of 2026, to US$34,968 million, one day after the ministry headed by Marcelo Ebrard celebrated a 2.1 per cent advance, El Universal’s Desbalance column reported on Wednesday. The Banxico FDI correction turns the government’s record-investment narrative into a contraction at the worst possible moment in the trade calendar.

What the Banxico FDI correction shows

The discrepancy arises from the central bank’s balance-of-payments report for January to June 2026, published under governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, which revised upwards the figures for the first half of 2025: Mexico actually captured US$37,973 million in that period, not the US$34,265 million the Economy Ministry originally published. Once the higher 2025 base is applied, the US$34,968 million recorded for the first half of 2026 — roughly MXN 650 billion at about 18.6 pesos per dollar — represents a fall of 7.9 per cent rather than growth. Banxico cautions that its direct-investment figures are preliminary and subject to revision, which is exactly what happened here, only this time the revision undercut the official message instead of reinforcing it.

The Banxico FDI correction lands at an awkward moment for the government’s investment narrative. As The Rio Times reported this morning, Brazil has overtaken Mexico as Latin America’s top FDI destination in 2026, and the revised Mexican data now show inflows shrinking year on year in the very period the Economy Ministry had presented as a record with what El Universal described as confetti and streamers. The ministry had no immediate public response to the correction.

A record first quarter, built on reinvestment

The record framing was not invented from nothing. According to figures originally published by the Economy Ministry and analysed by the think-tank IMCO, Mexico attracted US$23,591 million of FDI in the first quarter of 2026, a historic high for a first quarter and 10.4 per cent more than a year earlier. But 94.2 per cent of that total — US$22,222 million — was reinvestment of profits by companies already operating in the country; genuinely new investments accounted for just 7.2 per cent, or US$1,705 million. Mexico City captured 49.9 per cent of the flow, and manufacturing 41.2 per cent, with vehicle manufacturing the largest manufacturing activity at US$4,033 million.

The Banxico FDI correction also reinforces a point the central bank has made for months: not everything registered as FDI becomes new productive capacity, and the indicator that matters for growth is gross fixed investment — machinery, equipment and construction — which has been weak. Banxico has said it expects investment to remain soft at least until the second half of 2026, citing persistent uncertainty over the trade relationship with the United States, and in late May it trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1 per cent from 1.6 per cent.

Moody’s warning over the USMCA review

Rating agency Moody’s has warned that uncertainty around the review of the USMCA — the T-MEC in Spanish — is weighing on exactly those investment decisions. In its 2026 outlook for emerging markets, the agency said the review, compounded by the possibility of sudden changes in US tariffs, is delaying investment and bond-issuance decisions in Mexico, and noted that Mexico has turned more protectionist towards China while trying to preserve free trade with the United States and Canada.

In June, Moody’s went further, warning that if the three governments do not extend the treaty in 2026 it would enter a cycle of annual reviews that could prolong uncertainty for up to ten years, hitting investor confidence and growth. The formal review opened on 1 July without an extension, and President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the United States would do better without the pact, while Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard has been in preparatory talks with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer since March. For analysts, the Banxico FDI correction reads like a first hard datapoint of the chill Moody’s described.

Santander and BBVA in the crossfire

The North American trade fight has put a spotlight on Spanish multinationals whose profits run through Mexico. Around half of BBVA’s net profit — 50.1 per cent on the 2025 full-year figures, or 5,264 million euros of a group total of 10,511 million — comes from its Mexican unit, while Banco Santander drew 12.0 per cent of its net profit from Mexico last year, 1,705 million euros out of 14,101 million, according to the banks’ own results. Shares of both banks fell sharply in July when Trump threatened Spain with trade measures, El Economista reported, showing how quickly the tariff rhetoric reaches the balance sheets of the Mexican subsidiaries.

The July episode showed the exposure in real time: after Trump called Spain a ‘terrible partner’ at the NATO summit in Ankara and demanded that the United States sever trade ties with Madrid over defence spending and the war in Iran, the IBEX 35 suffered its worst daily fall since March, with Santander shares down 4.3 per cent and BBVA down 3 per cent in a single session, El Economista reported. For analysts, the Banxico FDI correction and the tariff crossfire point to the same risk: less any single tariff than a prolonged three-way fight that chills the cross-border investment their Mexican units depend on.

Chinese companies are not letting go of Mexico

If there is one group of investors not retreating, it is Chinese companies. Research presented at Tec de Monterrey by economist Ernesto Stein, based on the ICLAC repository of 181 Chinese investment projects implemented in Mexico between 2001 and 2024, found that each additional percentage point of US tariffs on Chinese goods was associated with roughly 5 per cent more Chinese investment in the corresponding Mexican sector — evidence that American pressure has pushed Chinese manufacturers to plant themselves inside North America rather than abandon it. The strongest effects, the study found, appeared between 2023 and 2024, once companies concluded the tariffs were there to stay.

The relationship is not friction-free. China became Mexico’s top source of imported cars in 2025 with 625,187 vehicles, just before Mexico raised tariffs of 5 to 50 per cent on some 1,463 products from countries without trade deals, effective 1 January 2026. In March, China’s Commerce Ministry formally ruled that the Mexican tariffs constitute barriers to trade and investment, though President Claudia Sheinbaum insists the measures are not aimed at China and her government has kept negotiating with Beijing. For all the political pressure from Washington, the flows documented so far suggest Chinese capital is adapting to Mexico, not leaving it — one reason the Banxico FDI correction is about North American uncertainty rather than a collapse of foreign interest.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

• www.eluniversal.com.mx
• www.eluniversal.com.mx
• imco.org.mx
• latinus.us
• www.eleconomista.com.mx
• www.gob.mx
• www.eleconomista.com.mx
• www.bbva.com
• www.eluniversal.com.mx

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