Argentina’s Trade Surplus Looks Set To Shrink In December, Even As 2025 Stays Positive

Key Points

• December’s goods balance is expected near a $1.372 billion surplus, based on 13 analysts.
• Imports are projected to jump in 2025, trimming the surplus even with strong exports.
• Energy and uneven bilateral balances will shape hard-currency conditions in 2026.

Argentina may end 2025 with a solid trade surplus, but the cushion is narrowing as imports recover. A Reuters poll sees the December Intercambio Comercial Argentino (ICA) surplus at about $1.372 billion, with estimates ranging from roughly $470 million to $1.843 billion.

INDEC is scheduled to publish the official December figure on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT, a release that will help confirm how fast the external balance is tightening as domestic demand and input needs rebound.

If confirmed, the December surplus would follow November’s $2.498 billion. Through January to November 2025, INDEC reports exports of $79.592 billion and imports of $70.235 billion, implying a cumulative surplus of $9.357 billion before December is added.

Some economists expect the full-year 2025 surplus to reach about $10.707 billion and project exports around $86.817 billion for the year, which would be the second-highest total in 15 years, behind 2022’s $88.702 billion.

Exports totaled $79.703 billion in 2024, when Argentina posted a much larger $18.928 billion surplus, highlighting how quickly the balance can swing as the import bill changes.

Argentina Trade Balance Faces Import Pressure

That import bill is the central pressure point. Analysts project imports near $76 billion in 2025, up from $60.776 billion in 2024, a jump that can tighten dollar availability even when exports hold up. The partner breakdown shows persistent gaps that also matter for financing and supply chains.

In January to November 2025, Argentina ran deficits with China of about -$7.413 billion, with Mercosur of about -$5.562 billion, and with the European Union of about -$1.703 billion.

While offsetting them with a surplus versus the rest of ALADI of about +$8.338 billion and additional surpluses versus India of about +$3.689 billion and the Middle East of about +$3.632 billion.

Energy has become a key cushion in that picture. Fuels and related products (chapter 27) posted a $5.884 billion surplus in January to November 2025, up from a $3.726 billion surplus a year earlier.

With crude oil exports reaching about $6.060 billion and pipeline natural gas imports falling. Looking into 2026, economists argue export performance will be more exposed to global volatility, with oil prices becoming a variable to watch closely.

For markets and policy, the trade surplus remains one of Argentina’s main sources of hard currency for reserves and exchange-rate management.

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