Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — September 30, 2026
Key Facts
- The Merval fell 0.58% to 2,782,561 points on Tuesday, 29 September, its eighth straight loss and lowest close since 19 May; the streak has cost about 9.1%
- Bonds rebounded: dollar bonds gained 0.7% on average, breaking an 11-session losing run, and JP Morgan’s country-risk gauge fell 19 points to 607
- Current account in surplus: INDEC reported a second-quarter surplus of US$2.214 billion, against a deficit of US$2.452 billion a year earlier, on a US$6.5 billion rise in goods exports
- The peso firmed slightly: the wholesale dollar fell 0.2% to 1,522 per US dollar, and the central bank bought US$70 million, its largest purchase of the month
- Mixed movers: BYMA rose 4.3% and Edenor 2.3%, while TGN fell 3.9% and YPF 2.5%
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s S&P Merval index, the benchmark for the Buenos Aires stock market, reversed an early gain and fell 0.58% to 2,782,561 points on Tuesday, 29 September. It was the eighth straight loss and the lowest close since 19 May.
Bonds told a better story. Argentina’s dollar bonds rose 0.7% on average, ending an 11-session losing streak, and JP Morgan’s country-risk index fell 19 points to 607 basis points. On Monday the gauge had touched 642 during the session, its highest level of 2026.
Late in the session, statistics office INDEC reported a second-quarter current-account surplus of US$2.214 billion, driven by a US$6.5 billion rise in goods exports. A deficit had been expected.
The peso firmed slightly. The wholesale dollar fell 2.50 pesos, or 0.2%, to 1,522 per US dollar, on heavy spot volume of US$846 million. The central bank (BCRA) bought US$70 million, but gross reserves fell US$494 million to US$47.482 billion.
What matters today. Sovereign bonds found buyers and the external accounts improved, but stocks have not yet stopped falling.
01 The session in one read
The S&P Merval, Argentina’s benchmark share index, fell 0.58% on Tuesday to close at 2,782,561 points. It was the eighth losing session in a row and the lowest close since 19 May. Over the streak the index has lost about 9.1%.
The day was split. Stocks gave up a small early gain, while sovereign bonds rebounded. The country-risk premium — the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine government bonds rather than US Treasuries — fell 19 basis points to 607.
Moves among the large caps were mixed. Grupo Galicia, the most traded stock among the leaders, slipped 0.3% on about US$17 million of turnover. YPF fell 2.5% as oil prices dropped. Market operator BYMA rebounded 4.3% after a 5.5% fall on Monday.
The peso was steady to slightly firmer. The wholesale dollar ended at 1,522 pesos per US dollar, still well below the ceiling of the official trading band at 1,918.07 per US dollar.
Tuesday brought the first relief in sovereign debt after 11 losing sessions, but equities did not follow. Rising US Treasury yields and weak domestic activity data have been the main weights on Argentine assets, Infobae noted.
The second-quarter current-account surplus is a real improvement in the external accounts. It came late in the day, however, and did not lift stocks.
The variable to watch is whether country risk keeps falling toward 600 points. That would give banks, the most bond-sensitive stocks, room to recover.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 2,782,561 pts | −0.58% | Eighth straight loss; lowest close since 19 May |
| Session range | 2,762,666–2,809,889 | — | Intraday low and high |
| USD/ARS (wholesale) | 1,522 | −0.2% | Peso slightly firmer; band ceiling 1,918.07 |
| Country risk (JP Morgan) | 607 bp | −19 bp | First fall after 11 rises |
| Merval 52-week range (closes) | 1,764,590 – 3,379,772 | — | 17.7% below the 22 July high |
| Merval over 12 months | +55% | — | Long-term gain intact |
The Merval is now 17.7% below its closing high of 3,379,772 from 22 July, although it is still about 55% higher than a year ago.
The currency is calm. The band ceiling of 1,918.07 per US dollar is about 26% above the wholesale dollar, a gap close to its widest in 17 months, according to Infobae.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
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Argentina — Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,782,561 | -0.59% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
03 Why it moved — bonds bounce, stocks lag
The session’s main story was the bond rebound. Global bonds rose 0.7% on average and the JP Morgan country-risk index eased to 607 points, cutting an 11-session run of increases.
Stocks did not share the relief. Mauricio Villacorta of brokerage IOL said sovereign debt “managed to interrupt the selling” while equities “extended the decline”, according to Infobae. Higher US Treasury yields remain the main external weight: the US ten-year yield closed at 5.249%, and the dollar index rose 0.17%.
Oil also mattered. Brent futures fell about 2.6% to US$102.59 a barrel, which weighed on energy names. YPF lost 2.5% in Buenos Aires and 2.1% in New York.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYMA | 246.25 pesos (US$0.16) | +4.3% | Market operator rebounds after Monday’s 5.5% fall |
| Edenor | 1,677 pesos (US$1.10) | +2.3% | Power distributor recovers |
| Transener | 2,982.50 pesos (US$1.96) | +2.1% | Power transmission gains; about US$2.6m traded |
| Grupo Galicia | 6,000 pesos (US$3.94) | −0.3% | Most traded, about US$17m |
| YPF | 8,110 pesos (US$5.33) | −2.5% | Oil drop weighs; about US$12m traded |
| Central Puerto | 1,922 pesos (US$1.26) | −2.5% | Power generator extends losses |
| TGN | 3,180 pesos (US$2.09) | −3.9% | Gas transporter adds to Monday’s 7.2% fall |
The movers table shows no clear sector trend. Banks were almost flat after Monday’s heavy losses: Banco Macro fell 0.5% and BBVA Argentina 0.2%.
Energy and gas-transport stocks were the weakest. TGN fell 3.9% and YPF 2.5%. In New York, Argentine ADRs were mixed; Satellogic fell 7.4% and Bioceres 3.5%, according to Infobae.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | Argentina | −0.58% |
| S&P IPSA | Chile | −0.73% |
| MSCI COLCAP | Colombia | −0.79% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +0.46% |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | +0.26% |
The region was split. Brazil and Mexico gained, while Argentina, Chile and Colombia fell.
Argentina’s loss was in line with Chile and Colombia this time. The difference is the length of the slide: eight sessions in a row.
06 The technical picture
The Merval’s close at 2,782,561 is its lowest since 19 May, when it ended at 2,774,731. That level is the next reference below.
Tuesday’s intraday range ran from 2,762,666 to 2,809,889. A close back above 2.8 million points would be the first sign that the eight-day slide is ending.
With a gain of about 55% over 12 months, the long-term trend is still up. But the index is now 17.7% below its July peak.
07 Tuesday’s data, one by one
Monday’s edition told readers to watch country risk, the Treasury’s peso auctions, Milei’s speech to the IDEA business conference and US Treasury yields. The weekly preview added INDEC’s second-quarter current account.
- Current account (INDEC, Q2): a surplus of US$2.214 billion, against a deficit of US$2.452 billion a year earlier and a deficit of US$2.411 billion in the first quarter. The goods surplus was US$9.293 billion; services (−US$2.102 billion) and primary income, mainly interest and profits (−US$6.032 billion), were in deficit. A deficit had been expected. The data came out late in the session and did not lift stocks.
- Country risk: fell 19 points to 607 basis points, staying above 600, as bonds rose 0.7%. It did not approach 700, the stress level we flagged.
- Treasury auctions: none on Tuesday. The Treasury rolled over all of Monday’s maturities, about 8.6 trillion pesos (about US$5.7 billion). The next peso auction is on Thursday, 1 October.
- Milei at IDEA: the conference in Mar del Plata opens on Wednesday. Milei is due to speak by video from Paris on Wednesday evening, so this is still ahead.
- US yields and data: the US ten-year yield closed at 5.249%. US consumer confidence fell to 81.9, the lowest since 2014, and job openings fell to 7.08 million. Both were weaker than expected.
- Central bank: the BCRA bought US$70 million, its largest purchase this month, but gross reserves fell US$494 million to US$47.482 billion.
08 What to watch
- Milei at IDEA: the President speaks by video from Paris on Wednesday evening at the business conference in Mar del Plata
- Country risk: whether the JP Morgan gauge falls below 600 points after Tuesday’s first drop in 12 sessions
- Month-end: Wednesday is the last trading day of September, with the Merval down about 8% for the month so far
- US data: ADP payrolls, August PCE prices and the final second-quarter GDP estimate, which feed US Treasury yields
- Later this week: the Treasury’s peso auction and September tax revenue, both on Thursday
Background: Merval Falls 0.59% as Argentine ADRs Slide Across Latin America.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Merval?
The S&P Merval is Argentina’s benchmark share index, tracking the largest and most liquid companies listed on the Buenos Aires stock exchange.
Why did the Merval fall again?
Stocks gave up an early gain and fell 0.58%, an eighth straight loss, as high US Treasury yields and weak local activity data weighed on sentiment.
What does a 607-point country risk number mean?
Country risk is quoted in basis points, where 100 points equals 1 percentage point of extra yield. A reading of 607 means investors demand about 6.07 percentage points more to hold Argentine debt than US Treasuries.
What did INDEC report on Tuesday?
INDEC reported a second-quarter current-account surplus of US$2.214 billion, compared with a deficit of US$2.452 billion a year earlier, driven by a US$6.5 billion rise in goods exports.
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026; exchange figures from BYMA.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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