Argentina Stocks Dip 0.3% as Risk Eases | Argentina Market Report, Oct 20
Key Facts
- Argentina’s MSCI Merval stock index fell 0.3% to 97,942 points on Tuesday, a mild loss after a volatile session.
- Country risk eased to 672 basis points, down 3 from Monday, after touching 710 in the morning, its highest since 24 October 2025.
- The wholesale peso rate rose to ARS1,525 per US dollar, its third straight rise, while the blue-market rate reached ARS1,570.
- The central bank bought US$103 million in the spot market, lifting international reserves by US$49 million to US$50.201 billion.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket prices Javier Milei at 47.5% and Axel Kicillof at 32.5% to win the next presidential election (US$1.0 million traded, 8:36 pm ET, 20 October).
Today’s Focus
Argentine stocks ended Tuesday almost flat after a sharp morning scare. The MSCI Merval, the 19-company index that replaced the old S&P Merval this week, closed down 0.3% at 97,942 points.
Country risk, the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds over US Treasuries, hit 710 basis points at 10:15 am. It then fell back to 672 by the close, three points below Monday.
Analyst Balanz called it a strong intraday reversal across most assets. For US holders of Argentine ADRs, the lesson is that the morning scare faded but the debt premium stays near a one-year high.
What matters today. A bond-market scare reversed during the day, and the peso kept weakening.
01 The session in one read
The MSCI Merval, which tracks 19 Argentine shares, slipped 0.3% to 97,942 points. It is the index’s second session since it took over from the S&P Merval on 19 October, according to Infobae.
Argentina’s country risk reached 710 basis points early in the day, the highest since 24 October 2025. By the close it had eased to 672, three points under Monday’s 675.
ADRs, the Wall Street listings of Argentine companies, closed mixed. Globant rose 3.8%, while Satellogic fell 5.4% and Loma Negra 2.5%.
The intraday reversal shows buyers stepped in once country risk passed 700. Yet the premium is still close to a one-year high, and the peso rate has now risen three days in a row. We could not confirm what triggered the morning spike.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI Merval | 97,942 | −0.3% | Second session of the new 19-stock index |
| Country risk | 672 bp | −3 bp | Touched 710 bp at 10:15 am |
| Wholesale dollar (ARS) | 1,525 | +0.03% | Third consecutive rise |
| Blue dollar (ARS) | 1,570 | +0.6% | Up ARS10 on the day |
| Reserves (US$) | 50.201 billion | +49 million | Central bank bought US$103 million |
The wholesale dollar is the rate banks and companies use, and it closed at ARS1,525. The blue dollar is the informal street rate, which Argentines use to save, and it closed at ARS1,570.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
03 Why it moved — bonds and the peso
Argentine assets swung with the bond market. When country risk topped 700, shares and bonds fell; as it eased, they recovered.
The central bank bought US$103 million, about 15.3% of the day’s supply, according to Infobae. Reserves rose US$49 million to US$50.201 billion.
The peso kept weakening against the dollar. The wholesale rate has climbed for three sessions in a row.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Globant (GLOB ADR) | — | +3.8% | Best of the reported ADRs |
| Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL ADR) | — | +1.05% | Largest private bank |
| Banco Macro (BMA ADR) | — | +0.70% | Private bank |
| YPF (YPF ADR) | — | +0.16% | State-controlled oil company |
| Pampa Energía (PAM ADR) | — | −2.05% | Power and gas producer |
| Loma Negra (LOMA ADR) | — | −2.5% | Cement maker |
| Satellogic (SATL ADR) | — | −5.4% | Worst of the reported ADRs |
ADRs closed mixed. Banks and the oil company YPF held up, while Pampa Energía, Loma Negra and Satellogic fell.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +1.57% |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | +1.04% |
| S&P IPSA | Chile | −0.42% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +0.47% |
| MSCI Merval | Argentina | −0.3% |
Argentina lagged Brazil, Mexico and Colombia on Tuesday. Only Chile fell by more.
06 The technical picture
Country risk is the number to watch: 700 basis points was tested and rejected in the morning. A close above that level would be the first since October 2025.
Argentina’s Leading Indicator for September was also listed for Tuesday, but no published actual was available to us.
The wholesale dollar at ARS1,525 sits at the upper end of recent trading. The central bank’s steady purchases give it a cushion in reserves.
07 What to watch
- Country risk near 700: A close above 700 basis points would be a new one-year high.
- The peso rate: A fourth straight rise in the wholesale dollar would extend the weakening trend.
- Economic activity data: The statistics agency INDEC publishes August activity on Wednesday 21 October.
- Central bank purchases: Continued dollar buying supports reserves, now US$50.201 billion.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, prices the next Argentine presidential election at Javier Milei 47.5%, Axel Kicillof 32.5% and Sergio Massa 11.6%, with US$1.0 million traded (8:36 pm ET, 20 October 2026). A separate market puts the chance that Milei leaves office before 2027 at 2.5%.
These are bets, not polls. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Background: Argentina Stocks Fall, Debt Risk Hits 675.
Background: Argentina Stocks Dip 0.35% as Bonds Fall.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Argentine stocks do on Tuesday?
The MSCI Merval fell 0.3% to 97,942 points after a volatile session that began with country risk at 710 basis points.
What is country risk?
It is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries. It closed at 672 basis points, three below Monday.
What is the MSCI Merval?
It is the 19-stock index that replaced the old S&P Merval on 19 October 2026.
What did the peso do?
The wholesale dollar rose to ARS1,525, its third rise in a row, and the blue rate reached ARS1,570.
Market data: RT; session reports from Infobae and Ámbito.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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