Africa Intelligence Brief — October 8, 2025

Today’s tape: Macro and external balances steadied in North Africa, energy logistics advanced in West Africa, and political-security risks flared from the Horn to the Sahel, while a top miner reaffirmed long-term commitment to the continent.

East Africa

Kenya: Nairobi to open talks for a new IMF programme next week

Central bank governor Kamau Thugge said officials will meet the Fund in Washington after the previous arrangement expired earlier this year.

Why it matters: A successor programme would buttress FX buffers and anchor fiscal-monetary coordination as Kenya rolls over debt.

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa warns the UN that Eritrea is “readying to wage war”

Ethiopia’s foreign minister accused Asmara of colluding with a Tigray-based group; Eritrea has not publicly confirmed the claims.

Why it matters: Any cross-border escalation would threaten fragile stabilization in northern Ethiopia and disrupt regional trade corridors.

West Africa

Nigeria: First wholly owned FSO commissioned to boost exports

NNPC and partners launched the FSO Cawthorne (≈2.2 million-barrel capacity) to reduce reliance on theft-prone pipelines near Bonny.

Why it matters: More secure evacuation should lift effective output and export reliability, supporting budget oil receipts.

Nigeria: World Bank—growth improving, food prices still biting

A new update cites reform gains (FX, subsidy removal) but says high food inflation keeps households under strain.

Why it matters: Policy momentum is helping macro metrics, yet persistent food costs demand targeted safety nets.

Burkina Faso: Junta arrests eight humanitarian workers on “spying” charges

Authorities said the detainees worked for INSO, a Netherlands-based NGO focused on aid-sector security.

Why it matters: Detentions chill NGO operations and risk curtailing lifesaving assistance in conflict-hit areas.

North Africa

Algeria: 2026 budget bill targets a 35% deficit cut despite record spend

Draft projects the gap at $40bn (≈12.4% of GDP) while ramping outlays to spur growth and support incomes.

Why it matters: Consolidation ambitions with elevated spending raise questions about financing mix and oil-price assumptions.

Egypt: Current-account deficit narrowed to $2.2bn in Q2

Remittances and tourism receipts improved, the central bank said.

Why it matters: A smaller external gap relieves FX pressure, though investment inflows remain a watchpoint.

Southern Africa

Madagascar: Protest leaders reject the president’s “national dialogue”

Youth-led demonstrations over outages and governance continued despite cabinet changes and a new PM.

Why it matters: Prolonged unrest elevates political-execution risk and may delay infrastructure and social-service fixes.

Central Africa

DRC: Red Cross flags severe drug shortages in eastern health facilities

Over 80% of clinics lack essential medicines amid ongoing conflict.

Why it matters: Treatment gaps heighten mortality risk from preventable diseases and complicate humanitarian scaling.

Corporate / Industry — Mining

Anglo American: CEO says the group “still sees a future in Africa”

Despite restructuring and asset sales, Anglo highlighted Africa’s role in critical minerals; Kumba remains its core SA asset.

Why it matters: Boardroom signalling supports pipeline investment and supplier ecosystems across metals value chains.