Water Dispute Deepens Between Mexico and Texas Over Treaty Obligations

A growing dispute between Mexico and the United States over the 1944 Water Treaty has escalated, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening tariffs and sanctions unless Mexico fulfills its water delivery obligations.

The treaty requires Mexico to send 1.75 million acre-feet (2.158 billion cubic meters) of Rio Grande water to the U.S. every five years, but with six months left in the current cycle, Mexico has delivered less than 30% of its commitment.

Trump claims Mexico owes Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water, accusing it of “stealing from Texas farmers.” He has linked the shortfall to economic harm, including the closure of Texas’s only sugar mill.

Trump vowed to escalate consequences, including tariffs, until Mexico complies. Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attributes the delays to a three-year drought worsened by climate change, stating that Mexico has delivered water “to the extent available.”

The disagreement highlights broader challenges in managing shared resources amid environmental pressures. Drought has devastated northern Mexico, where local agriculture and industry also depend on limited water supplies.

Critics argue the treaty is outdated, failing to account for modern realities like climate change and increased demand. Mexico narrowly met its obligations in the previous cycle but appears unlikely to do so this time.

Officials have proposed short-term measures to boost deliveries but warn that “water that does not exist” cannot be provided. The U.S., however, has already denied a Mexican request for additional Colorado River water.

With U.S.-Mexico relations strained over trade and migration issues, this dispute risks further tension. Both nations face mounting pressure to renegotiate or modernize the treaty to reflect current environmental and economic realities while avoiding a full-blown trade conflict.