US Democrats Lead House Race by 8 Points
Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 44% in the race for the US House, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, and President Donald Trump’s approval has fallen to 33%. This is the latest update to our 2026 US midterm elections dossier, which tracks polls and prediction markets for readers in the United States and abroad.
The vote is on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, 11 days away. The poll is a national snapshot, so it does not decide which party wins individual districts.
Key Facts
- What: Democratic House candidates lead 52% to 44% among likely voters.
- Trump: approval is 33%, the lowest in the ABC/Post/Ipsos series.
- Independents: Democratic candidates lead 56% to 35% among independent likely voters.
- When: Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026; all 435 House seats are on the ballot.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket prices a Democratic House win at 92.5% and the Senate at 68.5% (22 October 2026, 8:30 pm ET).
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Democrats Widen Their National Lead
The poll was fielded from 9 to 13 October 2026 among 2,545 US adults. Its margin of error is 2 points, or 2.2 points for the 2,032 registered and likely voters, according to ABC News.
Trump’s 33% approval is below the 38% recorded after the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol. Among independents, Democratic candidates hold a 21-point lead.
Voters Trust Democrats on Costs
The same poll series found Democrats ahead on the economy by 9 points and on the cost of living by 14 points. Both topics sit at the centre of the campaign.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll, fielded 16 to 19 October among 1,679 adults, put Trump’s approval at 31%, a record low for either of his terms. It showed Democrats ahead by 12 points among registered voters, with a margin of 3 points for that group.
What Prediction Markets Say
- House: Polymarket prices a Democratic win at 92.5% and a Republican win at 7.5% (about US$20.3 million traded).
- Senate: Polymarket prices a Democratic win at 68.5% and a Republican win at 31.5% (about US$7.9 million traded).
- Stand: 22 October 2026, 8:30 pm ET. These are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Campaign in the Last Two Days
On 21 October, Michigan’s Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers held their final debate. They clashed over Trump, the Iran war, tariffs and healthcare.
The same day, Trump rallied in Clemson, South Carolina, for Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed in July and is running for a full term. On 19 October, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer urged the Federal Communications Commission to reject a petition from Club for Growth that would allow AI-generated robocalls before the election.
What It Means for US Readers
For anyone following the midterms, the polls point to a national mood that favours Democrats, driven by prices and the president’s weak ratings. A shift in control of the House would reshape how much of Trump’s agenda can pass.
Investors can watch the market prices for a quick read on expectations, but they remain bets. The Senate looks closer than the House.
What Is Not Known
National polls do not show how votes fall across districts and states, so they cannot fix the final seat counts. We also do not know how turnout, early voting and late spending will change the picture.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far ahead are Democrats in the latest national poll?
An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, fielded 9 to 13 October 2026, has Democratic House candidates ahead 52% to 44% among likely voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from 16 to 19 October shows a 12-point Democratic lead among registered voters.
What is President Trump’s approval rating?
It is 33% in the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, the lowest in that series. Reuters/Ipsos, which polls all adults, put it at 31%.
What do prediction markets say about Congress?
On 22 October, Polymarket priced a Democratic House win at 92.5% and a Democratic Senate win at 68.5%. These prices are bets, not polls.
When is the 2026 midterm election?
Tuesday, 3 November 2026. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, and 218 are needed for a majority.
Sources: ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll; Reuters/Ipsos poll (via The Star); CBS News and CNN on the Michigan debate; WBTV and OANN on the Clemson rally; Al Jazeera on the Schumer letter; Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief