ETHIOPIA · US DIPLOMACY
Key Facts
- —The country Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous nation, home to the African Union, and a long-time recipient of US aid and security cooperation.
- —What happened In an interview published on Monday 19 October, the US ambassador to Ethiopia said conflict should never be the first option in the north.
- —The peace terms Washington still backs the 2022 Pretoria deal: democracy in Tigray, return of displaced people, federal administration restored and fighters disarmed.
- —US aid The ambassador said aid was never meant to be permanent and the United States now focuses on humanitarian and health work.
- —Business push He called for a renewed push on trade, US capital and US companies creating jobs in both countries.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives a 16.0% chance that Eritrea invades Ethiopia by 31 December and 9.7% by 31 October (19 October, 9:43 p.m. ET).
- —Still open No talks between the federal government and the Tigray leadership have been announced, and the ambassador has not spoken to them since 23 September.
The US ambassador to Ethiopia, Ervin Massinga, said conflict should “never be the first option” in the north, where fighting began on 23 September. He spoke in an interview with The Reporter, an Ethiopian weekly newspaper, published on Monday 19 October.
For Americans, the interview shows Washington trimming aid while pressing for talks, new trade and Trump mediation on the Nile dam dispute. Ethiopia is a major US partner in the Horn of Africa, so the tone of US diplomacy matters to investors and taxpayers.
What the US Ambassador Told The Reporter
Massinga said the fighting that began on 23 September has drawn close attention in Washington and across Ethiopia. He called it always tragic and said those in authority must protect civilians, especially when heavy weapons are used.
He said the government and the armed opposition had tried not to hurt innocent people. Even so, he said, harm to civilians requires acknowledgement, restitution and efforts to prevent a repeat.
He added that the decisions of 23 September have left Tigray, the northern region, in a very different position. The US ambassador said that this creates opportunities to build a stronger north and a more cohesive Ethiopia.
Massinga has served in Addis Ababa for three years, according to the interview. The US Embassy describes him as a senior career diplomat and a former State Department deputy assistant secretary for African affairs.
Washington Still Backs the Pretoria Principles
The Pretoria agreement, signed in South Africa in 2022, ended the earlier war in Tigray between the federal army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The front, known as the TPLF, led Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades until 2018.
The US ambassador said the deal’s principles remain US policy. They are democracy in Tigray, the return of displaced people, restored Ethiopian administration and the disarming and reintegration of fighters.
He said young people have lined up to sign up for the disarmament programme since 23 September. He added that contested areas such as Western Tigray, called Wolkait locally, should be settled by constitutional means.
Massinga said he has met TPLF leaders many times but has not spoken to them since 23 September, which he called their choice. He said talks with the Oromo Liberation Army, an armed group fighting in the Oromia region, failed in Tanzania early in his tenure.
He criticised the Alliance for Survival, a grouping of armed movements, saying it has only called for more conflict and destruction. He warned that threats to civilian airports are a grave mistake, as covered in the Rio Times report on the caretaker administration.
A Narrower US Aid Role
Massinga said aid was never meant to be permanent and that the Trump administration wants humanitarian and health programmes that do not last forever. He said Washington can still respond quickly to crises through United Nations agencies and aid groups.
He said the United States has done a great deal of work since the aid diversion uncovered in Ethiopia’s aid system. In his words, the large-scale, systematic diversion seen before will not happen again.
Most American help will now flow through government channels under an implementation agreement tied to a health memorandum of understanding. He welcomed a new dedicated humanitarian and emergency fund set up by the Ethiopian government.
Asked about civil society groups hit by the closure of USAID, the US aid agency, he said Washington is narrowing its work. The focus is now lifesaving humanitarian and health assistance, he said.
Nile Dam Mediation and the Sea Access Question
On the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Africa’s largest hydropower plant, Massinga quoted Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump’s senior adviser. Boulos said Trump is ready to resume mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia, with talks continuing with all parties.
Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos visited Washington in May, the ambassador said. Boulos has since urged Egyptian, Ethiopian and Sudanese experts to seek technical fixes, and the Rio Times Nile dam explainer covers the dispute.
Asked about sea access and claims that Eritrea and Egypt fuel the fighting, he left those questions to senior officials in Washington. He said only that the United States favours economic integration in the Horn of Africa and wants tension to fall.
He said US policy on Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia, has not changed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently spoke with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, he noted, as part of full-spectrum diplomacy.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a US-based betting platform, traders gave a 16.0% chance on 19 October (9:43 p.m. ET) that Eritrea invades Ethiopia by 31 December. That price rose 5.5 points in 24 hours, while the chance of an invasion by 31 October stood at 9.7%.
The Eritrea market has traded about US$112,000 in total. The ambassador did not address Eritrea directly and left the question to Washington.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
The US ambassador said Washington wants a renewed push on commercial diplomacy, meaning trade, US capital and American companies creating jobs in both countries. He gave no figures for aid, trade or investment.
For US taxpayers, the message is that American help in Ethiopia is shrinking and is being routed through the Ethiopian government. For investors and exporters, the stated goal is more private business, but the fighting in the north keeps risk high.
The State Department’s advisory, issued on 27 August, says Americans should reconsider travel to Ethiopia and not travel to Tigray, Amhara and several other regions. The Rio Times report on the Tigray offensive covers the airport closures in the north.
What Is Not Known
No date has been set for talks between the federal government and the Tigray leadership. It is also unclear how much US aid will keep reaching Tigray, Amhara and Afar.
The interview gives no figures for new US investment or trade deals. It is not known whether Trump’s offer on the Nile dam will lead to talks, or how Washington would respond if tension with Eritrea grows.
More: Ethiopia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the US ambassador to Ethiopia?
Ervin Massinga, a senior career diplomat, is the US ambassador to Ethiopia. He told The Reporter that he has served in Addis Ababa for three years.
What did the US ambassador say about the fighting in Ethiopia?
He said conflict should never be the first option and that civilians must be protected. He urged armed groups and the government to put dialogue first.
Is the United States cutting aid to Ethiopia?
The ambassador said aid was never meant to be permanent and that Washington is narrowing its work to humanitarian and health assistance. Most help will now go through government channels.
Will Trump mediate the Nile dam dispute?
The US ambassador quoted adviser Massad Boulos as saying Trump is ready to resume mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia. No date for talks has been announced.
What is the Pretoria agreement?
It is the 2022 peace deal signed in South Africa that ended the earlier war in Tigray. The US ambassador said its principles still guide US policy.
Sources: The Reporter Ethiopia (interview with Ambassador Ervin Massinga), 19 October 2026; US Embassy in Ethiopia (ambassador profile), 20 October 2026; Ethiopian News Agency (weekly diplomacy roundup), 18 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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