U.S. Tariffs Slash $5 Billion from Brazil’s Export Forecast

Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry (CNI) reported that United States tariffs of up to 50 percent on Brazilian goods will erase more than five billion dollars in export revenue this year.

The report stated that the measure lowers the country’s expected export value to 341.9 billion dollars and cuts the trade surplus by fourteen percent to 56.6 billion dollars.

The new tariffs affect a wide range of goods, including coffee, beef, seafood, textiles, footwear, machinery, automobiles, and aerospace products.

Coffee alone sends around 16 to 17 percent of its total exports to the U.S., making it highly exposed. Machinery and industrial products also face steep duties, raising costs and lowering competitiveness for Brazilian firms.

CNI lowered its forecast for industrial growth in 2025 from two percent to 1.7 percent, citing weaker external demand and higher domestic borrowing costs.

Brazil’s overall GDP projection remains 2.3 percent, supported by a strong farm sector and steady job creation. Agriculture now expects a 7.9 percent expansion, up from the earlier estimate of 5.5 percent, while the services sector should grow 1.8 percent.

The manufacturing sector, however, now faces a slowdown, with growth limited to 1.5 percent compared to 3.8 percent last year. CNI’s economic director Mário Sérgio Telles said the new U.S. trade policy places national industry at risk.

He stressed that compensatory measures announced by Brazil’s government will not replace the American market for many sectors.

Brazil Faces Tariff Shock

The government responded with the “Sovereign Brazil” plan, which provides 30 billion reais, or about 5.5 billion dollars, in credit guarantees through the Export Guarantee Fund.

The package includes tax deferrals, special support for small and medium companies, and insurance for canceled orders. Public institutions such as schools and hospitals will buy some goods originally intended for export to prevent domestic oversupply.

The tariffs already show broader effects. Studies presented to Brazilian authorities warned that growth could shrink between 0.3 and 0.8 percentage points in 2025 and that more than 100,000 jobs could be at risk.

This puts added pressure on the construction sector, which still expects 2.2 percent growth due to the Minha Casa, Minha Vida housing program, and on commodity industries where oil output supports modest two percent growth.

The dispute also carries political weight. Analysts link the decision in Washington to wider tensions in bilateral relations, which include visa restrictions, deportations, and cases at the World Trade Organization.

These factors increase uncertainty for exporters and raise concerns about long-term access to the U.S. market. Brazil’s government continues to seek dialogue, but the scale of the tariffs makes them a defining challenge for its economy in 2025.

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