Brazil Manufacturing PMI Falls to 44.8 in September, Steepest Slump Since April 2023
ECONOMY · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy and its biggest manufacturing base, publishes a monthly factory survey compiled by S&P Global.
- —What happened The Brazil manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 in September from 46.3 in August, S&P Global said on 1 October 2026. Readings below 50 signal contraction.
- —The numbers The third-quarter average was 46.2, the lowest since the second quarter of 2023. Factories cut staff for a third month, though more slowly than in August.
- —What it means for you Weaker orders mean slower hiring and tighter supplier margins. Input costs rose faster again, yet competition kept the rise in factory selling prices to a seven-month low.
- —Still open Whether demand recovers after October’s presidential election, as surveyed firms expect, and how far energy and transport costs keep rising.
The Brazil manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 in September from 46.3 in August, S&P Global reported on Thursday 1 October 2026. It marks the sharpest deterioration in factory conditions since April 2023.
The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys factory buyers on orders, output, jobs and prices each month. Any reading below 50 means conditions worsened from the month before.
Demand weakens ahead of the election
Firms told S&P Global that weak demand, competitive pressure and political uncertainty before October’s presidential election held back sales. Reuters reported the details from the survey on Thursday.
The September figure pulled the third-quarter average down to 46.2. That is the weakest quarterly reading since the second quarter of 2023, according to S&P Global.
The slide has been steady rather than sudden. The index stood above 50 in June, then fell in each of the three months that followed.
Jobs and prices
Manufacturers reduced headcount for a third straight month in September. The pace of job cuts was moderate, however, and softer than in August.
Cost pressures returned after easing for four months in a row. Input price inflation picked up and moved back above its long-run average, according to the survey.
Firms blamed higher material and transport costs on the global energy crisis and the war in the Middle East. Many raised their own selling prices in response.
Competition and falling sales limited that pricing power, though. Inflation in prices charged by factories eased to its lowest level in seven months.
A brighter outlook for 2027
Business confidence about the next 12 months improved from August. That was the one bright spot in the data, said Pollyanna De Lima of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“Companies continued to be more optimistic about the next 12 months, supported by expectations that market conditions will improve after the elections,” she said, as quoted by Reuters in Portuguese and translated here.
The survey adds to signs of a slower economy in the second half. Official forecasters recently trimmed their 2026 outlook, as covered in Brazil Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 2.0% on Weak Services, Industry.
For markets, the factory survey was one of Thursday’s key data points, flagged in Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Thursday, October 1, 2026.
What Is Not Yet Known
The survey does not say how much of the weakness is tied to the election itself. A clearer test comes with the October reading, due in early November.
Official industrial production data for September from IBGE, the national statistics institute, have not yet been released. They will show whether hard output figures match the survey’s gloom.
It is also unclear how long the energy and transport cost shock will last. That will decide whether factory price pressures fade again or keep building.
Sources: S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing PMI, September 2026, as reported by Reuters (via InfoMoney, 1 October 2026); BM&C News, 1 October 2026; earlier monthly readings as reported by Estadão Conteúdo and CNN Brasil, June–September 2026.
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