U.S. Tariffs Cut Mexican Steel Exports by 16.6%, but Washington Still Runs a Surplus

Official figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce show Mexican steel exports to the United States dropped 16.6% in the first half of 2025, totaling 4.591 billion dollars.

The decline followed the March 12 reimposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican steel under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. Mexico’s share of U.S. steel imports fell from 13.4% in early 2024 to 12.3% in early 2025.

Yet Mexico still ranked third among U.S. suppliers, behind Canada with 5.303 billion dollars and China with 5.254 billion dollars. While tariffs cut Mexico’s shipments, they did not erase U.S. reliance on foreign steel.

In fact, the United States exported 6.733 billion dollars in steel products to Mexico during the same six-month period, leaving Washington with a 2.148 billion dollar surplus.

This gap shows that the trade relationship remains asymmetric even as Washington imposes new barriers. Monthly numbers underline the strain. By June 2025, Mexican exports fell to 604 million dollars, the lowest monthly figure in five years.

In May, shipments dropped nearly 35% compared to a year earlier, according to preliminary Census data. The White House said the tariffs aim to protect domestic industry and introduced stricter “melted and poured” rules to prevent rerouting through third countries.

But tariffs are effectively taxes on U.S. importers. Customs data show tariff revenues stood at 37 billion dollars in fiscal 2015 and nearly doubled to 74 billion dollars by 2020. Collections reached 77 billion dollars in 2024, even before the latest hikes.

Mexico’s steel industry chamber, CANACERO, condemned the measures, warning that supply chains in North America depend on cross-border integration. Mexico also remains the top buyer of U.S. steel, meaning higher costs and slower flows hit both sides.

The story behind the numbers is clear. Washington’s tariffs have weakened Mexican exports, reduced their market share, and increased government revenues.

Yet the United States continues to export more steel to Mexico than it buys, and both industries remain bound together. The policy may raise money, but it also risks making steel more expensive for U.S. factories and consumers while pushing strain onto Mexico’s producers.

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