Spain’s Right Eyes Senate Deal Before Vote

Spain’s conservative Popular Party (PP) wants its rival on the right, Vox, to skip Senate races in provinces it cannot win. The idea would stop right-wing votes from splitting, and parties must file candidate lists by Monday, 26 October 2026.

Our Spain Election 2026 dossier tracks the race to the 29 November vote.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo made the remarks in a Cadena SER radio interview on Friday, 23 October 2026. He said talks with Vox leader Santiago Abascal are open but that no deal is closed.

Why the Senate Matters to the Right

Spain elects its Senate largely by province, and each voter can back individual candidates. When two parties on the same side both run, their votes can split and hand seats to the left.

Feijóo said the PP “values this gesture” if Vox withdraws where it has no senator. He added that the decision rests with Vox.

Equality Ministry and the Campaign

In the same interview Feijóo said he would not keep a standalone Equality Ministry and that its work would move to another ministry. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who leads the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), replied on X that Feijóo proposes to scrap it.

The exchange shows how both camps are already fighting on social policy. The official campaign runs from 13 to 27 November, and the new chambers are due to meet on 23 December 2026.

What the Polls Say

The last seat projection we could verify is a GAD3 poll for the newspaper ABC, published on 12 October. It gave the PP 133 seats, the PSOE 107 and Vox 65.

That would put PP and Vox together on 198 seats, above the 176 needed for a majority in the 350-seat Congress. The state-run CIS survey, with fieldwork from 1 to 6 October, instead shows the PSOE about 10 points ahead of the PP, an outlier against most private pollsters.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, which has traded about US$160,000 on the Spanish election winner, the PP is priced at 75.5%. On Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, Feijóo is priced at 78% to be prime minister after the vote, Sánchez at 19% and Abascal at 3%.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

For US investors and diplomats, a PP government that leans on Vox would shape policy in a large euro-area economy and NATO member. The Senate deal matters because it could decide how large a majority the right wins.

Prices on these markets are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly after lists are filed.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whether Vox will accept, or in which provinces it would stand down. Nor is it clear whether a deal will be settled before the 26 October deadline.

Polls disagree sharply, so the real balance between the blocs is unclear. No poll we could verify gives a fresh seat projection after Feijóo’s remarks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Feijóo propose about the Senate?

He called it logical for Vox not to run in provinces where it cannot win a senator. He said the PP would value that gesture, and that no deal is closed.

When is Spain’s general election?

Spaniards vote for Congress and the Senate on Sunday, 29 November 2026. The campaign runs from 13 to 27 November.

When are candidate lists due?

Parties and coalitions must file candidate lists by Monday, 26 October 2026.

What do the polls show?

A GAD3 poll on 12 October projected 198 seats for PP plus Vox, above the 176 needed. The state-run CIS shows the PSOE ahead by about 10 points.

Sources: Infobae/Europa Press (23 October 2026), El Distrito, Diario de Pontevedra live blog, Democrata (GAD3), Vozpópuli (CIS), Polymarket, Kalshi, Spanish Electoral Calendar.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief