MEXICO · US RELATIONS · ENERGY
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is the United States’ southern neighbour and a major trading partner, led since October 2024 by President Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party. US pipelines sent Mexico 6.4 billion cubic feet of gas a day in 2024, against total Mexican gas use of 8.6 billion.
- —Why it matters Mexico’s growing power sector burns US gas, so a push to sell more links US energy exports to Mexican electricity supply and to a US goods deficit with Mexico of US$197.0 billion in 2025.
- —Why now Her remarks came as Washington presses Mexico on trade, oil and security at once, about two weeks before the US midterm elections on 3 November.
- —What happened On Monday 19 October Sheinbaum confirmed that Donald Trump has raised US natural gas purchases in their phone calls, and denied that he asked for Pemex assets in exchange for signing the USMCA trade pact.
- —The numbers US pipeline gas exports to Mexico averaged about 6.6 billion cubic feet a day in 2025, worth about US$6.7 billion at the federal average export price, or about 3.4% of the US goods deficit that year.
- —What it means for you US gas producers already have a record customer, while Mexico’s own plan is to lean less on imported gas over time.
- —Still open Whether Mexico commits to any volume, price or date, and whether gas buying is tied to the trade talks.
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket puts a formal USMCA extension by 31 December 2026 at 8.5% (19 October, 3:32 p.m. ET).
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed on Monday 19 October that US President Donald Trump has raised US natural gas purchases in their phone calls, the Mexican dailies El Financiero and El Economista reported. She also denied that Trump asked for assets of Pemex, Mexico’s state oil company, in exchange for signing the USMCA trade pact, while saying he has offered at times to help raise Mexico’s oil output.
For US readers the request matters because Mexico already takes a record flow of US pipeline gas, and because it sits inside trade talks over a US goods deficit with Mexico of US$197.0 billion in 2025. On the same day a Mexican columnist wrote that the security relationship between the two governments is at perhaps the most critical moment Sheinbaum has had with Trump, which is his opinion and not an established fact.
What Sheinbaum Said on Monday
El Financiero quotes Sheinbaum as saying of the gas request: “Yes, it is a topic that has come up in the calls.” El Economista quotes the rest of her answer as: “We told him that we have five new combined-cycle plants, but that we also want to strengthen the same thing we say here, we say it in the calls: that natural gas is being bought, but that we also want to develop more natural gas.”
The quoted remarks do not say how much extra gas Trump wants, and no volume, price or date was given. SDP Noticias reads her words as a plan to strengthen domestic gas production, while El Financiero and El Economista report them as confirmation that Trump raised more purchases.
Asked whether Trump has requested Pemex assets in exchange for signing the USMCA, Sheinbaum said, in SDP Noticias’ transcription: “Not in exchange, but he has raised at times that he can help, he puts it that way, in oil production, and in every case we have been clear.” El Economista quotes her as telling Trump: “President, here there is a Constitution and here there are laws.”
She said what exists, for about 80 years, is US companies taking part as Pemex contractors, now regulated in the new Pemex law, and named Halliburton as an example. El Financiero’s live report also says she acknowledged Trump’s interest in buying Pemex assets, a point that El Economista and SDP Noticias do not carry.
How Much US Gas Mexico Already Buys
Mexico already takes a record flow of US pipeline gas. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Washington’s official energy statistics agency, puts those exports at 6.4 billion cubic feet a day in 2024, up 25% from 2019.
Its latest annual table shows 2,422,839 million cubic feet for 2025, which is about 6.6 billion cubic feet a day and 3.4% more than in 2024 by calculation from the table. At the EIA’s average export price of US$2.75 per thousand cubic feet, that flow was worth about US$6.7 billion.
Mexican gas use rose from 7.7 billion cubic feet a day in 2019 to 8.6 billion in 2024, and the EIA says most of that growth came from electricity generation. West and South Texas supplied 91% of the 2024 exports.
The four main export corridors have a combined capacity of about 14.8 billion cubic feet a day and ran at about 43% of it in 2024. Among the limits the EIA names on sending more are constraints in Mexico’s own pipeline network and limited gas storage in Mexico.
Why Gas Sits Inside the Trade Talks
The backdrop is a large US goods deficit with Mexico. Census Bureau data show US$197.0 billion in 2025 and US$155.9 billion in the first eight months of 2026, about 21% more than in the same months of 2025.
On Tuesday 13 October Sheinbaum answered “It could be” when asked whether Mexico might buy more US gas as part of the trade negotiations, according to the news agency EFE. She added that Mexico must secure gas for five new combined-cycle power plants, which run on gas: “If it is necessary, that natural gas will have to be bought if it is not available in the country to run those five plants.”
She also said her government has decided to depend less on natural gas and to steer its energy planning toward renewables, in remarks carried by EFE and La Crónica de Hoy. Taken together, her remarks describe a government that may buy more US gas in the short run while planning to need less of it later.
Gas alone cannot close the gap, because the roughly US$6.7 billion of US pipeline gas Mexico bought in 2025 equals about 3.4% of the US goods deficit that year. The wider talks over the USMCA, the North American trade pact that Mexico calls T-MEC, are covered in a 12 October report on Sheinbaum’s remarks.
A Columnist Sees Security Ties at a Low Point
Raymundo Riva Palacio, a Mexican columnist, wrote in the Saltillo daily Vanguardia on 19 October that the security relationship between Mexico and the United States is at a very difficult moment, “perhaps the most critical” Sheinbaum has had with Trump. That is his reading, and much of it rests on unnamed sources that could not be confirmed.
He writes that Trump asked for Pemex assets in a call on 16 September as part of the price for signing the trade deal and that Sheinbaum refused, without naming a source. On Monday Sheinbaum denied that Trump has made Pemex assets, or the handover of politicians linked to crime, a condition for signing, and she said their last call was on 16 September, as El Economista and Infobae report.
Sara Carter, the White House drug czar, told Voz News that US agencies would pursue cartel networks at every level, in an interview that Zeta of Tijuana quoted on 8 October. In Zeta’s Spanish rendering she said: “We don’t care whether you are the governor or the person who works the plaza at a small shop.”
On Thursday 15 October Trump told a White House event that the cartels govern Mexico and that he has said so to Sheinbaum, according to Zeta’s account of his remarks. Sheinbaum has framed such US statements as part of the American election campaign ahead of the 3 November vote.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market where users bet real money, the chance that the USMCA is formally extended by all three countries by 31 December 2026 stands at about 8.5% (19 October, 3:32 p.m. ET). The price rose about one cent in a day and fell about two cents in a week, on total trading of about US$11,500, so it is a thin signal and a set of bets, not a poll.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US gas producers and pipeline companies, Mexico is already a record customer, and in 2024 the four main export corridors ran at about 43% of their capacity. Among the limits the agency names are constraints in Mexican pipelines and limited storage.
For investors with Mexican exposure, the Pemex answer is the line to watch, because Sheinbaum says US firms may work as Pemex contractors but that the Constitution and laws limit oil rights. Two dates frame any deal: the review of the USMCA, where Polymarket traders see a formal extension this year as unlikely, and the US midterm elections on 3 November.
For Americans living in or visiting Mexico, the practical link is electricity, since most of the growth in Mexican gas demand since 2019 came from power generation. The quoted remarks announce no change in supply or prices, and Sheinbaum says her government wants to rely less on gas over time.
What Is Not Known
No volume, price or date for extra US gas purchases has been published, and Sheinbaum did not say whether Trump made a formal demand or raised it informally. Monday’s remarks, as El Economista quotes them, mention five new combined-cycle plants, the same number she named on 13 October, but no source read for this report gives their sites or how much gas they would need.
The presidency’s own transcript could not be opened, because its website blocked automated requests, so the Monday quotes come from El Financiero, El Economista, SDP Noticias and Infobae, whose wording of the same answers differs slightly, and should be checked against the official record. The EIA figures are the latest annual data available, and its next update is due on 30 October.
Riva Palacio’s account of the 16 September call rests on unnamed sources, and it has not been confirmed. Whether Trump has asked to buy Pemex assets is also open, because El Financiero’s live report says Sheinbaum acknowledged his interest while El Economista and SDP Noticias report her denying any such condition.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Sheinbaum say Mexico will buy more US gas?
Not in so many words. She said the topic has come up in her calls with Trump, and on 13 October she said Mexico would have to buy gas for five new power plants if domestic supply falls short.
How much US gas does Mexico buy?
US pipelines delivered 6.4 billion cubic feet a day in 2024, a record, and about 6.6 billion in 2025 by calculation from federal data. At the average export price that was roughly US$6.7 billion.
How does gas connect to the US trade deficit with Mexico?
The United States ran a goods deficit of US$197.0 billion with Mexico in 2025, and Sheinbaum has said more US purchases could help narrow it. Gas alone is small next to that, about 3.4% of the gap at 2025 volumes.
What did Sheinbaum say about Pemex?
Asked whether Trump wants assets of Pemex, the state oil company, in exchange for signing the USMCA, she said not in exchange, but that he has said at times he can help in oil production. She said US companies may take part as Pemex contractors, with Halliburton as an example, while the Constitution and laws set the limits.
Is the USMCA likely to be extended this year?
Polymarket traders put a formal extension by 31 December 2026 at about 8.5% on 19 October. That is a bet by traders in a thin market, not an official forecast.
Sources: El Financiero, Sheinbaum’s morning press conference, 19 October 2026, El Economista, 19 October 2026, SDP Noticias, 19 October 2026, Infobae México, 19 October 2026, Vanguardia, Raymundo Riva Palacio column, 19 October 2026, EFE via Diario de Yucatán, 13 October 2026, La Crónica de Hoy, 13 October 2026, US Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, 20 October 2025, US Energy Information Administration, natural gas exports to Mexico, annual table released 30 September 2026, US Census Bureau, trade in goods with Mexico, Zeta Tijuana, Sara Carter, 8 October 2026, Zeta Tijuana, Trump remarks, 15 October 2026, White House, Sara Carter confirmed as drug czar, 6 January 2026. All retrieved 19 October 2026. Prediction-market data: Polymarket public market data, 19 October 2026, 3:32 p.m. ET. Dollar figures are as published by the US agencies or our own arithmetic from them, and no peso conversion was needed. Photos: Eneas De Troya (CC BY 4.0) and EneasMx (CC BY 4.0), via Wikimedia Commons.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error