OPEC’s Steady Demand Outlook Meets Growing Supply Warnings
OPEC’s September 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report holds its forecast that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.4 million in 2026.
That keeps expected consumption near 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.5 million in 2026, unchanged from earlier projections. The group supports its outlook with an assumption of steady global growth near 3 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.
It also reports OECD commercial oil stocks at 2,761 million barrels in July, below the latest five-year average by 128.5 million, suggesting limited spare cover in headline volumes.
Official data from other agencies show a less tight picture. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects global inventories to build by more than 2 million barrels per day from late 2025 into early 2026.
It forecasts Brent crude averaging around $59 per barrel in the final quarter of 2025 and near $50 in the first quarter of 2026.
On a days-of-supply basis, the EIA notes OECD inventories already sit above their seasonal average, highlighting more comfortable coverage once adjusted for demand.
The International Energy Agency also projects slower demand growth than OPEC, near 740,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 700,000 in 2026.
At the same time, it expects supply to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 2.1 million in 2026 as OPEC+ producers unwind cuts and non-OPEC growth continues.
The underlying story is the gap between OPEC’s steady demand optimism and the EIA and IEA’s warnings of faster supply growth and stock builds.
That gap matters because it shapes price direction. If OPEC’s view holds, markets remain balanced and prices stabilize. If rival forecasts prove right, inventories expand and crude prices slide further.
For governments, refiners, and traders, these differences determine budget stability, investment planning, and risk strategies. For consumers, they influence transport, heating, and goods prices.
The next year will show whether OPEC’s confidence in resilient demand outweighs the data pointing to a supply-heavy market.
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