Nigeria Approved a US$45 Million Rail Link to Its Lagos Ports. Almost Nobody Noticed
Nigeria · Infrastructure
Key Facts
- The approved project Nigeria’s federal cabinet cleared a US$45.3 million rail scheme in February 2025 linking Badagry, Tin Can, Apapa and Lekki into the Lagos–Kano–Maradi line.
- The refinery Dangote’s plant in the Lekki Free Zone has a 650,000 barrel-a-day nameplate, raised to 700,000 after performance testing in June.
- The reality Crude runs fell to roughly 350,000–400,000 barrels a day from 10 July during maintenance, and the petrol-making unit typically runs near 55% of its capacity.
- The sea plan The refinery said in 2024 it intended to move 75% of local supply by ship to Warri, Port Harcourt and Calabar. That share has not been confirmed as reached.
- The export swing African exports rose to about 90,000 barrels a day from 38,000, with twelve petrol cargoes totalling 456,000 tonnes sent to five countries.
- The regulator’s view Nigeria’s downstream regulator says infrastructure gaps and logistics constraints are the obstacles to a West African fuel trading hub.
- The money moment The refinery is preparing a Nigeria-only listing, with about US$1 billion of underwriting arranged this week.
The refinery moved the country’s fuel map. The track to carry it is approved, funded and largely unbuilt.
The argument about Nigeria ports and rail usually stops at a complaint: the Lekki Free Zone was built without decent rail or pipeline connections, so everything leaves by road or by sea. That is true. What is also true, and rarely mentioned, is that the federal government approved and funded a rail link to fix part of it more than a year ago.
The Nigeria ports and rail project that already exists
In February 2025 the Federal Executive Council approved a rail project worth about US$45.3 million to connect four western seaports — Badagry, Tin Can Island, Apapa and Lekki — routing through Ijebu-Ode and Kajola into the Lagos–Kano–Maradi standard-gauge line. The transport minister, Saidu Alkali, announced it.
In April this year the managing director of the Nigerian Railway Corporation, Dr Kayode Opeifa, made the case again in more detail: Apapa and Tin Can, the Warri–Itakpe line running into Warri Port, Onne, Baro, and Lekki Deep Sea Port reached via Ijebu-Ode, Sagamu and Kajola.
So the plan is not missing. What is missing is track in the ground, and the gap between an approved federal project and a working freight connection in Nigeria has historically been measured in years.
Live Company IntelligenceNigeria Approved a US$45 Million Rail Link to Its Lagos Ports. Almost Nobody Noticed — the full investor dossier
Why the refinery makes it urgent
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery started producing in January 2024 — diesel and aviation fuel first, petrol from September that year. Its nameplate is 650,000 barrels a day, and licensor performance testing in June this year pushed runs to 700,000, about 10% above design. The company has talked about 1.4 million barrels a day within thirty months.
Those are the headline numbers. The operating ones are lower. Crude runs dropped to roughly 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day from 10 July during maintenance on a flue gas steam generator, with the main distillation unit at around half capacity. The residue fluid catalytic cracker — the unit that makes petrol, rated at 204,000 barrels a day — typically runs near 55% even in normal operation.
Even at those rates, the volume of product that has to physically leave Lekki every day is unlike anything Nigeria’s logistics network was built for. The complex has its own port and jetties, roughly 120 kilometres of subsea pipeline and five single-point moorings, two for crude and three for products. Inland, there is essentially one road corridor.
The answer so far has been ships, not trains
In September 2024 the refinery said it planned to move 75% of its domestic supply by sea, to coastal depots at Warri, Port Harcourt and Calabar. Nearly two years on, there is no public confirmation that the share has been reached.
It has also rolled out compressed-natural-gas trucks — a fleet of around 4,000 — under a free nationwide distribution scheme, which is a road answer to a road problem rather than a way around it.
And it has been looking at building its own port. Dangote sought a licence for a deep seaport at Olokola in Ogun State in July 2025 and reactivated the plan in May this year. A private operator building its own harbour is a fairly direct verdict on the public ones.
Why the plumbing decides the regional story
Exports have grown fast. Reuters reported in March that Dangote’s shipments across Africa had risen to about 90,000 barrels a day from 38,000, with twelve petrol cargoes totalling 456,000 tonnes going to Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana and Togo.
That has fed the idea of a West African fuel pricing benchmark and trading hub, so the region stops pricing its petrol off European cargoes. Rabiu Umar, chief executive of Nigeria’s Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, made that case on 11 August — and named the obstacles: infrastructure gaps, logistics constraints and weak market transparency. The first two are ports and rail.
Aliko Dangote put the size of the prize at an Abuja conference in July last year: Africa still imports around 120 million tonnes of refined product a year, a market worth roughly US$90 billion. That is his own figure, and he has an interest in it, but the order of magnitude is not disputed.
Why this matters if you invest in African infrastructure
There is a second reason this month is the moment to look at it. The refinery is preparing to list, and the terms tell you who is expected to own it: a Nigeria-only listing for at least three years, an African Finance Corporation-led private placement of about US$2.5 billion for 6%, implying a valuation near US$40 billion, and roughly US$1 billion of underwriting arranged this week.
A listed refinery has to publish throughput. That will settle arguments about utilisation that are currently conducted with estimates, and it will make the logistics constraint visible in a way it has not been.
For anyone watching African infrastructure from Latin America, the shape is familiar. A single private asset outgrows the public network around it, the state approves the connecting infrastructure, and the asset builds its own in the meantime. Brazil’s mining railways and Mexico’s private port terminals both went that way. The question is the same one: whether the public link ever gets built, or whether the private workaround becomes permanent.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Nigeria approved a rail link to its Lagos ports?
Yes. The Federal Executive Council approved a rail project worth about US$45.3 million in February 2025 connecting Badagry, Tin Can Island, Apapa and Lekki, routed through Ijebu-Ode and Kajola into the Lagos–Kano–Maradi standard-gauge line. It was announced by transport minister Saidu Alkali. Construction progress is another matter.
How much is the Dangote refinery actually producing?
Its nameplate is 650,000 barrels a day and licensor performance testing reached 700,000 in June 2026. Actual crude runs fell to roughly 350,000–400,000 barrels a day from 10 July during maintenance on a flue gas steam generator, and the petrol-making residue fluid catalytic cracker, rated at 204,000 barrels a day, typically operates near 55% of capacity.
Is the refinery moving 75% of its supply by sea?
That was the plan announced in September 2024, using coastal depots at Warri, Port Harcourt and Calabar. There is no public confirmation that the share has been reached. The company has separately rolled out around 4,000 compressed-natural-gas trucks and pursued a licence for its own deep seaport at Olokola in Ogun State.
Why do West African regulators want a regional fuel benchmark?
So the region prices its petrol on its own supply rather than off European cargoes. Rabiu Umar, chief executive of Nigeria’s Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, argued for a regional benchmark and trading hub on 11 August 2026, while naming infrastructure gaps, logistics constraints and weak market transparency as the obstacles.
Connected Coverage
Dangote Refinery IPO in Nigeria Gets US$1 Billion Backing
Dangote Refinery IPO Is Aimed at Nigerian Savers, Not London
Sources: The Guardian Nigeria — Federal Executive Council approves a US$45.3 million rail project linking four western ports; The Guardian Nigeria — NRC pushes for stronger rail–port linkages to boost logistics efficiency; The Guardian Nigeria — Dangote refinery raises processing capacity to 700,000 barrels per day; Kpler — July maintenance curbs Dangote refinery output and product exports; Reuters via Business Day — Dangote steps up exports across Africa, 23 March 2026; S&P Global Commodity Insights — Dangote on Africa’s 120 million tonne, US$90 billion product import market; Engineering News — Dangote refinery IPO gets a US$1 billion underwriting programme
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Part of our ongoing coverage
Africa: The New Scramble — the great-power contest over the continent.
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.
Read More from The Rio Times