Mexico IPC Drops 1% as Cemex Drags; Peso Slips to 17.23

Mexico’s benchmark index snapped a three-session winning streak on Thursday, falling 713 points to close at 70,888.04 — still within striking distance of its all-time intraday high of 71,760.95 reached earlier this week. The session was defined by risk-off positioning ahead of Friday’s US January CPI print, which consensus expects at 2.5% year-over-year, down from December’s 2.7%. The IPC remains up more than 10% year-to-date and has gained approximately 32.8% over the past twelve months. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexican markets and Latin American financial news.

Cemex was the session’s biggest laggard, sliding 3.01% to MXN 21.60, pressured by its Q4 earnings release that revealed EBITDA margins compressing under rising energy costs and weaker volumes in its European operations. Pinfra dropped 2.49% to MXN 295.90, extending its underperformance relative to the broader infrastructure sector. The cementera and infrastructure plays bore the brunt as rising US 10-year yields pressured duration-sensitive valuations across the BMV.

The session was not uniformly negative. Grupo México surged 3.47% to MXN 199.62 and Industrias Peñoles gained 3.40% to MXN 1,111.00, both buoyed by copper prices hitting fresh highs — a reminder that Mexico’s mining complex remains a structural beneficiary of the global electrification and nearshoring themes. Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura (Pinfra) had actually hit an all-time high earlier in the week before Thursday’s reversal.

In corporate news, the BMV is preparing for a potential wave of IPO activity in 2026. Director General Jorge Alegría confirmed that four companies are confidentially exploring public offerings, building on the momentum from 2025’s breakout year that ended an 8-year drought with the listings of Essentia, Aeroméxico, and Fibra Next. The IPC’s price-to-earnings multiple of 16.3x is approaching its 5-year average of 16.6x, with Grupo Financiero Bx+ estimating 15% earnings growth for 2026 and 11.2% in pesos for Q4 2025.

The peso retreated to 17.23 per dollar, its weakest level of the week, as USD strength reasserted itself following the strong US employment report. The weekly range has spanned 17.14 (registered February 11 — the lowest since mid-2024) to 17.52, with the peso remaining 2.3% stronger year-to-date. The rate differential story remains the peso’s anchor: Banxico’s 7.00% policy rate against the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% target range provides a 325-basis-point carry advantage.

The Dollar Index was the primary driver, rising to 98.76 (+0.23%) — recovering from 4-year lows near 97.60 reached earlier this month. US nonfarm payrolls of 130,000 beat the 70,000 consensus while unemployment fell to 4.3%, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Markets are now pricing two 25-basis-point cuts for the year (June and September) rather than three. Friday’s January CPI looms as the next catalyst — consensus expects headline inflation at 2.5% (from 2.7%) and core at 2.6% (from 2.6%).

WTI crude surged 3.05% to US$64.99 per barrel as US-Iran nuclear talks hit a snag, with disagreements over the location and format of scheduled negotiations raising fears of military escalation. The EIA simultaneously reported a crude inventory build of 8.5 million barrels, but geopolitical risk trumped fundamentals on the session. Gold pulled back to US$4,949 per ounce (−2.21%), retreating from the previous session’s near-record levels as the stronger dollar weighed on non-yielding assets. For Mexico, higher oil prices support Pemex revenues and fiscal math, but add to imported inflation pressures that complicate Banxico’s decision calculus.

The China-Mexico tariff talks in Beijing added a new layer of complexity. Mexico’s January 1 tariff hike covering 1,463 tariff codes — with rates up to 50% on non-FTA imports including automobiles, auto parts, textiles, and steel — was widely interpreted as a preemptive move to placate Washington ahead of the USMCA review. Beijing’s warning to “think twice” and Monday’s meeting suggest China is pushing back, creating a three-way trade dynamic that could influence both FDI flows and peso sentiment through mid-year.

On the 4-hour chart, the IPC closed at 70,807.71 with the session printing a high of 71,760.95 — a fresh all-time intraday record — before retreating sharply. Price remains above all major Ichimoku cloud components, with the cloud base providing support near the 68,077 level. The Bollinger Bands are expanding after the breakout above 70,000, with the upper band at 70,904.50 and the 20-period midline at 69,789.73.

The MACD histogram at 13.59 remains positive but has decelerated from its recent peak of 835.01, signaling that bullish momentum is fading in the short term. The signal line at 821.42 is converging toward the MACD line, setting up a potential bearish crossover on the 4-hour timeframe that could confirm a pullback toward the 69,934–69,789 support zone (upper Bollinger to 20-period MA).

RSI sits at 61.24 on the 4-hour and 59.01 on the smoothed signal — moderately bullish territory but no longer overbought after retreating from the 70+ readings seen earlier this week. This suggests room for either continuation or consolidation, with the 55–58 zone acting as the neutral reset level.

USD/MXN continues to trade in a tight range near multi-year lows. The weekly low of 17.14 registered on February 11 marks a key support level, while a break above 17.50 would signal the beginning of a broader peso correction. The DXY’s bounce from 4-year lows near 97.60 to 98.76 bears monitoring — a sustained recovery above 99.00 would mechanically pressure the peso through the dollar channel.

The carry-trade dynamic remains the dominant force. With Banxico at 7.00% and the Fed at 3.50–3.75%, the 325-basis-point spread is under structural compression — markets are pricing Banxico to resume cuts in Q2 while the Fed debate has shifted from “how many cuts” to “when to start again.” A convergence of the two policy paths would erode the peso’s yield advantage and test the 17.50–18.00 zone.

Today’s US January CPI release at 8:30 AM ET is the week’s defining event. Consensus expects headline CPI at 2.5% year-over-year (down from 2.7% in December) and core CPI at 2.6%. Goldman Sachs sees headline coming in slightly light at 2.4%, which could add to hopes that inflation is moderating. A reading at or below consensus would validate the disinflation narrative, support three Fed rate cuts in 2026, and provide a tailwind for both the peso and Mexican equities via the carry-trade channel.

The USMCA review looms as the medium-term risk. The July 2026 deadline approaches with three major pressure points: China trans-shipment through Mexico (which the tariff reform aims to address), automotive rules of origin (with US negotiators seeking tighter content requirements), and critical minerals and AI technology provisions. Mexico’s own tariff reform — imposing duties up to 50% on non-FTA imports — is explicitly designed to strengthen its negotiating position, but it also risks disrupting supply chains and raising consumer prices domestically.

Next week brings Banxico’s minutes from the February 5 decision (Thursday, February 19), which will be scrutinized for signals on whether the pause extends through Q1 or if the board is already debating a March resumption of cuts. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday, February 18) will provide parallel color on the Fed’s thinking. For the IPC, the BMV’s IPO pipeline and Q4 2025 earnings season remain the key micro catalysts — with estimated 15% earnings growth for 2026, the market needs delivery to justify current valuations.

Report compiled by The Rio Times • Data sources: BMV, Investing.com, Milenio, Banco de México, Bloomberg Línea, Expansión, CNBC, EIA, TradingView • Charts: TradingView (BMV:ME) • Published February 13, 2026