The S&P IPSA plunged 2.17% on Thursday to close at 10,974.84 — losing the psychologically critical 11,000 threshold for the first time since January 9 and extending a brutal week that has erased 5.4% from the index since Monday. The selloff was broad-based, with Banco de Chile dropping 4.02%, SQM-B falling 4.20%, and Entel sinking 4.57% as a global risk-off wave, triggered by a hotter-than-expected US CPI preview narrative and a late-session tech rout on Wall Street, cascaded through emerging markets. Only Copec (+0.58%) and ILC (+1.98%) escaped the bloodbath. The IGPA fell in tandem, closing at 55,207.57 (−2.06%).
The Chilean peso weakened sharply as the dollar surged CLP 3.6 to close at CLP 858.3, reversing Wednesday’s decline and posting its largest single-session loss in over a week. The move was amplified by a 2.8% collapse in copper futures to US$5.80 per pound — snapping a two-day rebound — after a tech-led selloff in New York drove investors toward dollar-denominated safe havens. The Banco Central’s official dólar observado registered at CLP 856.38 for the session. Despite the daily setback, the peso remains approximately 7.8% stronger year-over-year and well within the CLP 820–880 range that consensus projects for 2026.
All eyes now turn to Friday’s US January CPI report (8:30 AM ET), which consensus expects at 2.5% headline and 2.5% core — both down from December’s readings. The data will directly shape Fed rate-cut expectations and, by extension, the trajectory for emerging-market assets. Chile’s Banco Central held its TPM at 4.50% on January 27, but a trader survey published this week showed the market pricing a 25-basis-point cut to 4.25% at the March 25 meeting, reflecting confidence that domestic inflation has converged to the 3% target. The February EEE raised 2026 GDP growth expectations to 2.6% from 2.5%.
| Indicator | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P IPSA | 10,974.84 | −2.17% |
| IGPA | 55,207.57 | −2.06% |
| USD/CLP (Close) | 858.30 | +0.42% |
| USD/CLP (Dólar Observado) | 856.38 | — |
| Copper (COMEX) | US$5.80/lb | −2.80% |
| Brent Crude | US$69.68/bbl | +0.39% |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | 96.83 | +0.20% |
| BCCh Policy Rate (TPM) | 4.50% | Hold (Jan 27) |
Chilean equities suffered their second devastating session in three days on Thursday as the S&P IPSA plunged 2.17% to close at 10,974.84, shedding 242.98 points in a single session and decisively breaking below the 11,000 level that the index had only breached to the upside in November 2025. The rout followed Wednesday’s 1.89% rebound from Tuesday’s 2.14% crash, creating a whipsaw pattern that has left the index 6.4% below its January 28 all-time high of 11,721.38 and back to levels last seen in early January.
The damage was widespread. Banco de Chile, one of the IPSA’s heaviest-weighted components, fell 4.02% as banking stocks retreated across the board. SQM-B dropped 4.20%, continuing its volatile stretch since Chinese partner Tianqi announced intentions to sell up to 3.57 million Series A shares — equivalent to 1.25% of SQM’s total capital — a development that has clouded the stock despite strong 2026 earnings prospects and Cochilco’s projection of a 40%+ jump in lithium prices this year. Entel extended its post-Telefónica selloff, falling 4.57% as the market continues to reprice the competitive landscape following NJJ Holding and Millicom’s US$1.215 billion acquisition of Telefónica Móviles Chile.
Latam Airlines, the IPSA’s single most influential stock, declined 1.47% to CLP 26.47 on continued digestion of the sixth secondary share sale (12 million ADRs at US$61.90 per ADR, settled February 11). The stock has lost approximately 12% from its recent peak and is now below BCI Corredor de Bolsa’s CLP 34 price target. Analyst consensus remains positive — Credicorp Capital holds a CLP 30.50 target — but the overhang from Sixth Street Partners’ exit continues to weigh on sentiment. In contrast, Copec rose 0.58% and ILC gained 1.98%, providing rare pockets of green in an otherwise uniformly red session.
The corporate calendar remains active. Chile’s foreign trade hit a record US$18.041 billion in January 2026 — the highest for any opening month and the 17th consecutive monthly increase — underscoring the economy’s external-sector strength. Meanwhile, Codelco’s El Teniente mine, site of a deadly accident last year, saw Reuters report continued output challenges, adding to supply-side concerns that have kept copper structurally supported despite Thursday’s pullback.
The Chilean peso gave back Wednesday’s gains and then some on Thursday, with the dollar closing at CLP 858.3 — a CLP 3.6 advance (+0.42%) from the prior session’s CLP 854.7. The Banco Central’s official dólar observado, which reflects the previous day’s interbank transactions, registered CLP 856.38. The peso opened promisingly at CLP 852.02 (per Dow Jones), down 0.16% from Wednesday, but the afternoon session brought aggressive dollar buying as risk appetite evaporated across global markets.
Copper was the primary culprit. COMEX futures plunged 2.8% to US$5.80 per pound, erasing a two-day rebound and leaving the metal approximately 12% below the all-time high near US$6.58 reached earlier this year. The selloff was part of a broader commodities rout: gold fell 2.9% and silver collapsed 9.5% in a dramatic unwinding of safe-haven positions as Treasury yields whipsawed ahead of Friday’s CPI report. The Dollar Index edged higher to 96.83 (+0.2%), while 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell 4.8 and 8.1 basis points respectively, reflecting a flight to quality within dollar-denominated assets.
Despite the daily volatility, the peso’s structural position remains solid. The currency is approximately 7.8% stronger year-over-year, supported by Chile‘s favorable terms of trade (copper averaged above US$5.50/lb in 2026 thus far), a narrowing inflation differential with the US, and the political confidence boost from the rightward shift in governance. The February Encuesta de Expectativas Económicas projects the dollar at CLP 860.50 in two months and CLP 860 at eleven months, suggesting the market sees current levels as broadly consistent with fair value. Cochilco’s updated projection of US$4.95/lb for 2026 average copper provides a floor for peso support, though the risk from renewed US tariff threats on copper imports remains a wildcard.
The 4-hour chart tells a stark story of accelerating deterioration. Thursday’s close at 10,974.84 came after the index opened at 11,027.03, briefly touched an intraday high of 11,069.93, but then collapsed through the session low of 10,949.54 before a marginal bounce. The final 4H candle printed at −0.49%, confirming the bearish sequence that has dominated since the January 28 all-time high of 11,721.38.
The moving average structure has deteriorated significantly. Price is now trading well below the 4H EMA cluster visible on the chart in the 10,914–11,134 zone, with the key moving averages at 10,974.84 (close), 10,914.52 (lower reference), and 11,133.90/11,124.10 (overhead resistance). The 200-period SMA at approximately 10,080.88 remains distant support, confirming the medium-term uptrend is still intact despite the near-term damage. The Ichimoku cloud, visible as the shaded area on the chart, has been breached to the downside — a significant bearish development on this timeframe.
Momentum indicators are deeply negative. The RSI reads 42.78/37.00, with both the primary and smoothed lines well below the neutral 50 mark and approaching the oversold zone near 30 that has historically marked tradeable bottoms. The MACD histogram at −77.20 is at its most extreme negative reading in months, with the signal lines at −34.45/−42.75 both firmly below zero and diverging further. This confirms that the correction has gained significant downside momentum and that a sustainable bottom has not yet been established.
| Level | Value | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time High | 11,721.38 | Jan 28 intraday peak |
| 4H EMA Resistance | 11,124–11,134 | Overhead moving average cluster |
| Broken Support | 11,000 | Psychological & structural, now resistance |
| Close | 10,974.84 | Feb 12 close |
| 4H Lower Band | 10,914.52 | Bollinger/EMA lower reference |
| Jan 9 Support | 10,693–10,750 | Prior breakout zone |
| 200-Period SMA (4H) | 10,080.88 | Structural trend support |
Chile’s macroeconomic backdrop is arguably the healthiest in the region, which makes the equity correction more about global sentiment than domestic fundamentals. The Banco Central de Chile held the TPM at 4.50% on January 27, as the Grupo de Política Monetaria recommended, citing an inflation process that has converged to target faster than anticipated. The February Encuesta de Expectativas Económicas confirmed that analysts expect inflation at 3.0% — right at the BCCh’s target — through at least December 2027, with the IPC sin volátiles (core measure) tracking in line.
The EEE also revealed a meaningful upgrade to growth expectations: 2026 GDP was revised up to 2.6% from 2.5% in the January survey, while January Imacec is expected at 1.9% year-over-year. The current account remains manageable, and the UF stood at CLP 39,699.97, reflecting contained inflationary pressures. Crucially, a trader survey published February 11 showed the market pricing a 25-basis-point cut to 4.25% at the March 25 RPM — what would likely be the terminal rate of the current easing cycle, placing the TPM firmly within the estimated neutral range.
Externally, Thursday’s session was dominated by the global risk-off impulse. A sharp selloff in US technology stocks, reportedly triggered by Cisco Systems’ margin guidance and broader AI-spending uncertainty, cascaded through equity and commodity markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declined, with the rotation away from momentum names spilling into emerging markets. For Chile, the external linkage is double-edged: copper’s 2.8% decline directly pressured the peso, but the country’s fiscal position is cushioned by the Stabilization Fund and by copper revenues that remain historically elevated even at US$5.80/lb. The immediate macro catalyst is Friday’s US January CPI — consensus at 2.5% headline (down from 2.7%) and 2.5% core (from 2.6%). A softer print would boost rate-cut expectations, weaken the dollar, and support both Chilean equities and the peso.
The IPSA’s loss of the 11,000 level is technically significant but needs to be placed in context: even after a brutal week, the index remains up approximately 53% over the past twelve months and has delivered one of the strongest equity rallies anywhere in emerging markets. The correction from the January 28 all-time high of 11,721.38 to Thursday’s 10,974.84 close represents a 6.4% drawdown — painful but well within normal parameters for an index that had rallied 72 times to record highs in 2025 alone.
The key question is whether the macro underpinnings justify buying the dip. The answer, on balance, is yes. Chile offers a rare combination of inflation at target (3%), a central bank approaching the end of its easing cycle at 4.25–4.50% (providing scope for credit expansion without inflationary risk), GDP growth accelerating to 2.6%, a record trade surplus in January, and a constructive political environment. The LarrainVial fair-value estimate of 10,200–10,500 suggests limited downside from current levels, and the earnings backdrop — with IPSA companies having grown profits 6.07% in the first nine months of 2025 — remains supportive at approximately 12x P/E.
Technically, however, the 4H RSI at 37.00 and the MACD histogram at −77.20 suggest the correction has not yet exhausted itself. The base case is a test of the 10,693–10,750 zone — the January 5 breakout level and the first record close of 2026 — before a sustainable floor forms. For USD/CLP, the CLP 856–860 range represents fair value at current copper prices; a move toward CLP 840–850 requires either a softer US CPI or a copper rebound toward US$6.00/lb. Friday’s CPI is the immediate binary catalyst: a below-consensus print would likely trigger a relief rally in both the IPSA and the peso, while a hot number would extend the correction toward the 10,500 area. The ranges to watch: IPSA 10,500–11,100 and USD/CLP 845–870.
Report compiled by The Rio Times • Data sources: BCS, Investing.com, LarrainVial, Banco Central de Chile, Diario Financiero, Bloomberg Línea, Cochilco, Redimin, TradingView • Charts: TradingView (BCS:SP_IPSA) • Published February 13, 2026