Ibovespa Pulls Back From Record as AI Fears Crush Wall Street
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\nIbovespa retreats 1.02% to 187,766 after touching a record 190,561 intraday just one session prior. Profit-taking combined with Wall Street’s worst session in weeks — the Dow shed 669 points (−1.34%), the S&P 500 fell 1.57%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.03% on AI disruption fears triggered by Cisco’s 12% plunge after weak guidance.
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\nBanco do Brasil surged nearly 5% after posting Q4 adjusted net income of R$5.7 billion — up 51.7% quarter-on-quarter and above consensus. Ambev climbed almost 4% on an earnings beat across net revenue and adjusted EBITDA. On the flip side, Klabin fell over 2.5% after Itaú BBA downgraded it to market perform, and Petrobras slipped 1% on declining oil prices.
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\nU.S. CPI arrives Friday — the next macro trigger before Carnival shuts markets Monday–Tuesday. The January nonfarm payrolls beat (+130,000 vs. 53,000 expected) earlier this week already pushed back Fed rate-cut expectations, with CME pricing a 93.6% probability of a 25bp cut in June. A hot CPI could pressure EM flows further.
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\nMarket Commentary
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Key Facts
— Thursday’s session was a healthy correction after Wednesday’s euphoric breakout above 190,000. The Ibovespa opened near 189,694 — just shy of its record close — and faded throughout the day as Wall Street sold off aggressively on AI disruption fears. Cisco’s 12% collapse after issuing weak forward guidance triggered a broader rethink of the AI spending narrative, dragging down Apple (−5%), Disney (−5.3%), and the Nasdaq composite (−2.03%). This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian stock market and Latin American financial markets.
— Yet the damage in São Paulo was contained. While the index gave back 1,933 points, it held above the critical 187,000 zone and never tested the Tenkan-sen support near 185,415. The domestic earnings narrative remains constructive: Banco do Brasil’s Q4 adjusted net income of R$5.7 billion surprised to the upside, and Ambev’s beat confirmed that consumer-facing blue chips are delivering. Itaú BBA’s upgrade of Suzano’s year-end target after record results further validates the commodity-sector earnings momentum.
— The stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls (+130,000 vs. 53,000 expected) released earlier this week continued to weigh on rate-cut expectations. CME’s FedWatch tool now prices a 93.6% probability of a 25bp cut in June, pushing the timeline further out. The VIX spiked 18% to 20.83 — back above the fear threshold — while the 10Y UST yield rose to 4.21%, adding pressure on EM carry trades.
— The real weakened modestly to 5.2000 per dollar, pulling back from its post-record low of 5.1655 set last week. Oil prices fell to $67.55/bbl on Brent as easing U.S.–Iran tensions and demand concerns from Lunar New Year-subdued Chinese buying kept the commodity under pressure. Argentina’s January CPI at 2.9% m/m (above 2.5% expected) adds regional noise but has minimal contagion impact on Brazilian markets.
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\nTechnical Analysis
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Key Facts
—Daily timeframe. The daily chart shows the first meaningful red candle after eight consecutive green sessions. Price was rejected near the upper Bollinger Band at 194,404 and pulled back to close at 187,766. The Ichimoku cloud remains bullish with the Tenkan-sen at 185,415 as immediate dynamic support, while the Kijun-sen sits at 184,988. The MACD histogram shows a green bar but with diminishing momentum at 5,891/5,700 — a signal line bearish crossover could be forming. RSI has cooled from deeply overbought territory (above 80) to 75.65/70.56, still elevated but no longer extreme. Bollinger Band width is expanding, suggesting elevated volatility will continue.
—4-hour timeframe. The 4H chart reveals a more nuanced pullback structure. After breaking above 190,000, price created a bearish engulfing pattern and tested the Ichimoku cloud’s upper boundary near 182,657. The MACD at 2,012/1,987 remains positive but is flattening, while RSI at 65.82/61.92 sits in the neutral-to-bullish zone. The Bollinger Bands show price trading between the middle band (179,672) and upper band (187,766). The 200-period SMA (blue line) at 165,404 remains far below, confirming the primary uptrend is intact despite the short-term pullback.
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| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 194,404 | Upper Bollinger Band (daily) |
| Resistance 2 | 190,561 | All-time intraday high (Feb 11) |
| Resistance 1 | 189,699 | Record close (Feb 11) |
| Close | 187,766 | Feb 12 close |
| Support 1 | 185,415 | Tenkan-sen (daily) |
| Support 2 | 184,988 | Kijun-sen (daily) |
| Support 3 | 179,846 | Middle Bollinger Band (daily) |
| Support 4 | 176,154 | Senkou Span A (daily) |
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\nForward Look
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Key Facts
—Friday, February 13. U.S. January CPI — consensus expects headline at 2.5% (from 2.7%) and core at 2.5% (from 2.6%). A print below expectations would reignite rate-cut hopes and likely push the Ibovespa back toward 190,000. A hot print could extend Thursday’s selloff and pressure EM currencies. Applied Materials surged 12% after-hours on strong earnings, while Pinterest plunged 18% — mixed signals for Friday’s open.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.02%
185,147.15
-0.02%
64,866.61
-0.87%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,049,121
-0.29%
2,544.56
+0.40%
59,978.22
-0.31%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,147.15 | -0.02% | +21.85% | 185,188.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
—Carnival (Feb 16–17). B3 shut Monday and Tuesday. Reduced hours on Ash Wednesday (Feb 18). Expect compressed positioning Friday as traders adjust books ahead of the two-day closure. Historically, pre-Carnival sessions see lower volumes and wider spreads.
—Earnings pipeline. Vale and TOTVS results are expected today after the close. Banco do Brasil reported the Q4 beat after Wednesday’s close. The earnings calendar remains dense through end-February with B3 reporting February 26.
—Copom March 17–18. The market continues to price a 50bp Selic cut as the base case. Galípolo reinforced the March easing at the BTG CEO Conference, using measured language. The IPCA at 4.44% y/y (broadly in line) neither accelerates nor delays the timeline. Domestic carry remains the structural tailwind at 15%.
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Key Facts
— Buy the dip — but size appropriately ahead of Carnival.
— Thursday’s pullback was textbook profit-taking after an overstretched run to 190,561. The domestic earnings cycle is delivering (Banco do Brasil, Ambev, Suzano), foreign flows remain the dominant force, and the March rate-cut path is intact. However, the VIX at 20.83, U.S. CPI risk tomorrow, and a two-day Carnival closure argue for reduced position sizes. A close above 189,699 next week would confirm the breakout. A break below 184,988 (Kijun-sen) would signal a deeper correction toward 180,000. Technical bias: Moderately Bullish on the daily; Neutral on the 4H until CPI clears.
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For broader market context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for this date.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
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